2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_Staff_Report_for_the_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_89页_1mb

Peru: 2013 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content Overview

The Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation with Peru provides an assessment of the country's economic performance, policy stance, and outlook. The report was completed on January 8, 2014, following discussions with Peruvian officials from November 5 to 20, 2013. It outlines the economic context, risks, and policy discussions that were considered during the consultation.

Main Points and Key Information

Economic Context

• Peru's economy remained strong and dynamic, though growth slowed in 2013 due to external shocks (falling metal prices, U.S. tapering) and declining domestic confidence.
• The economy operated near potential, with a very small negative output gap.
• Real GDP growth was expected to be around 5% in 2013 and rebound to 5.5% in 2014.
• The unemployment rate fell to a historical low of 5.3% in November 2013, driven by high economic growth and formal sector absorption of underemployed workers.

Inflation

• Inflation rose in 2013 due to supply shocks and exchange rate pass-through effects.
• It was expected to remain close to the upper limit of the target band (3%) by the end of 2013 and move toward the middle range in 2014 as oil prices stabilized.
• Inflation expectations remained well-anchored over the medium term.

Monetary Policy

• The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) eased monetary policy by cutting the policy rate from 4.25% to 4% in November 2013 to support economic activity.
• The BCRP increased reserve requirements (RR) on dollar liabilities in early 2013 to limit dollarization and manage liquidity.
• Monetary policy flexibility was maintained, with the BCRP intervening in the FX market to prevent excessive volatility.
• The BCRP is expected to accumulate about US$3 billion in FX reserves in 2013, increasing net international reserves (NIR) to US$67 billion.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal policy became more supportive in 2013 due to the challenging external environment.
• The non-financial public sector (NFPS) surplus fell to 0.5% of GDP in 2013 from 2.25% in 2012.
• The structural fiscal surplus was estimated at 0.5% of GDP, contributing to a fiscal impulse of about 1% of GDP.
• A new macro-fiscal framework was approved in October 2013, aimed at introducing counter-cyclical budget formulation, improving accountability via a fiscal council, and clarifying fiscal relations between national and sub-national levels.

Exchange Rate Policy

• The exchange rate policy became more flexible, with the BCRP allowing greater exchange rate fluctuations to absorb external shocks.
• The nuevo sol depreciated by 8.5% in real terms during the first ten months of 2013.
• The real effective exchange rate (REER) is broadly in line with fundamentals, though some methodologies suggest slight overvaluation.
• The external balance remains stable, with the current account deficit expected to fall to 5% of GDP in 2014.

Financial Sector

• The financial sector remains solid and healthy, with banks being the largest component (accounting for 90% of financial system assets).
• Banks had high capital adequacy ratios (CAR) and low non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, though dollarization (over 45%) left them vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.
• Non-bank financial institutions faced worsening financial health due to concentrated portfolios in consumer and SME loans, but remained well-capitalized.

External Position

• The external position deteriorated due to falling exports and rising imports, resulting in a current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2013.
• The deficit is easily financed by private capital inflows (about 8% of GDP).
• The international investment position (IIP) has improved over the last decade, with net international reserves remaining comfortable.

Credit Rating

• Peru's sovereign credit rating was upgraded by Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Fitch in 2013, reflecting improved fundamentals and strong growth.
• The outlook for the rating was deemed stable by both agencies.

Social and Political Considerations

• The next electoral cycle is approaching, with regional and municipal elections in October 2014 and presidential and legislative elections in April 2016.
• Social tensions have increased, particularly around extractive industries, with about 150 disputes in early 2013.
• The Minas Conga project was stalled due to social discontent and is expected to be reconsidered in 2015.

Policy Recommendations

• The current policy mix is broadly adequate and should remain neutral.
• Macro-prudential measures could be used to support financial stability.
• Structural reforms are needed to enhance competitiveness, including labor market flexibility, human capital development, infrastructure upgrades, and financial deepening.
• Exchange rate flexibility should continue to act as a shock absorber.
• Fiscal buffers are available to support domestic demand in case of further external shocks.

Key Issues and Policy Discussions

• Near-term risks are well balanced, with domestic upside (structural reforms, investment) and downside (U.S. tapering, higher interest rates) risks.
• Private sector credit growth slowed due to macro-prudential measures, but is expected to recover.
• Public-private partnerships (PPP) are being promoted to improve the investment climate.
• The fiscal stabilization fund is being built to help manage non-renewable resource revenues and social needs.

Conclusion

Peru's economy has shown resilience despite external headwinds and domestic challenges. The policy mix is broadly adequate, and structural reforms are critical for long-term growth. The financial sector remains stable, and the external position is manageable with existing buffers and capital inflows. The next elections will be a key factor in shaping future economic policies and addressing social concerns.