北大国际战略研究院-_ISSUE-54_-Merkel-s-Successive-Election-Victories_-Causes-and-Challenges--LIAN-Yuru_8页_640kb

Merkel's Successive Election Victories: Causes and Challenges

Core Content

The 19th Federal Election of Germany in 2017 resulted in six parties securing over 5% of the vote, with the Union (CDU/CSU) led by Chancellor Angela Merkel winning the highest share at 32.9%. This victory allowed Merkel to form a new cabinet and begin her fourth term as Chancellor, surpassing the previous records of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl.

Main Points

1. Fundamental Principle: Germany First

• Merkel's governance is rooted in the principle of "Germany First," which prioritizes national interests over pan-European integration.
• She emphasizes the importance of Germany's financial stability and opposes excessive financial burdens on the country.
• This principle reflects a strong sense of patriotism and national identity, especially in the context of post-war Germany's resilience and reunification success.
• Her famous phrase "Wir schaffen das" ("We can make it") during the 2015 refugee crisis exemplifies her nationalistic resolve.

2. Essence: Social Market Economy

• Merkel upholds and promotes the German model of the "social market economy," which balances free market principles with social welfare.
• This model has been a cornerstone of Germany's economic success since 1948 and is seen as a middle path between capitalism and state control.
• She advocates for its global adoption, particularly in the context of the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a need for international cooperation and regulation.

3. Governance Style: Pragmatic and Problem-Oriented

• Merkel is known for her pragmatic, problem-solving approach to governance, often described as a "diagnostic" leader.
• She addresses issues systematically, focusing on immediate solutions while also laying the groundwork for long-term strategies.
• Despite criticism for lacking strategic vision, her steady and diligent approach has been preferred by the public in times of uncertainty.

4. Personality and Political Strategy

• Merkel's personal style is characterized by calmness, simplicity, and a low-key approach, which aligns with Germany's political convergence.
• She is adept at maintaining alliances and marginalizing opponents, often using strategic timing to assert influence.
• The 2017 election saw CDU lose some support to FDP and AFD, indicating a shift in voter sentiment and the challenges of forming a coalition government.

Key Information

• Election Results: CDU/CSU (32.9%), SPD (20.5%), AFD (12.6%), FDP (10.7%), Left (9.2%), Greens (8.9%).
• Merkel's Fourth Term: She will lead a coalition government, breaking records set by previous Chancellors.
• Coalition Challenges: The formation of a three-party coalition (CDU, FDP, Greens) was necessary due to the lack of support from SPD and AFD.
• Global Impact: Merkel's leadership has influenced international relations, particularly in the EU and with the U.S. under Trump.
• EU Reforms: France's President Macron proposed reforms to strengthen Europe, which Merkel's government must navigate.
• Sino-German Relations: Despite potential tensions with Trump, there is an expectation of continued cooperation between Germany and China.

Conclusion

Merkel's 2017 election victory marked a significant moment in German politics, highlighting both her enduring appeal and the evolving political landscape. Her governance style, grounded in national interests and economic pragmatism, has shaped Germany's role in Europe and globally. However, forming a stable coalition and addressing domestic and international challenges remain critical tests for her leadership.