20231225-兴证期货-油脂日度报告_5页_563kb

Summary of Global Commodity Research: Plant Oil Daily Report 2023 Dec 25

• Spot Prices: Both palm oil and soybean oil prices dropped by 60 yuan/ton, with S Tangang palm oil at 7090 yuan/ton and Guangzhou palm oil at 7060 yuan/ton, similarly for soybean oil in S Tangang and Guangzhou, all at 8220 yuan/ton. This decline is attributed to falling crude oil prices affecting the plant oil sector.

• Market Dynamics: Palm oil maintains a weak trend due to reduced production matching last year's levels, declining exports with limited inventory drawdown, and rising domestic inventory to around 970,000 tons. Downstream consumption remains sluggish, dragging on prices. Soybean oil is also bearish, with high inventory at 9,923,000 tons, but Brazilian policy increasing biodiesel blending from 2024 could provide some support.

• Fundamental Factors: Basic supply-demand balance for palm oil is tight, awaiting future data; for soybean oil, supply is strong but demand is weak and not yet robust, with potential impacts from delayed Chinese New Year purchases.

• Risks: Key risks include sustained low South American rainfall, unexpected palm oil production cuts, and any surprises in domestic consumption patterns.

• Outlook: The market is expected to stay pressured, with close monitoring needed for data and seasonal demand.