2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_August2018_102页_2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - August 13, 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the global oil market dynamics in July 2018, including crude and product price movements, supply and demand outlook, and market structure insights. It also covers the state of the world economy, oil trade, and stock levels.

Main Points

Crude Oil Price Movements

• OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to $73.27/b, remaining above $70/b for the third consecutive month.
• Year-to-date (YTD), the ORB value rose by $19.38 to $69.14/b compared to the same period in 2017.
• ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b.
• YTD, ICE Brent was $19.53 higher at $71.72/b, and NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b.
• The Brent/WTI spread narrowed by $4.25 to $4.37/b in July.
• Speculative net long positions decreased in both benchmarks, with the long-to-short ratio increasing slightly in ICE Brent and decreasing in NYMEX WTI.

World Economy

• Global GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 remains at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively.
• US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.9% and 2.5% for 2018 and 2019.
• Euro-zone growth slowed, with forecasts revised down to 2.0% and 1.9% for 2018 and 2019.
• China saw a revised growth forecast of 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019.
• India and Japan maintained their growth forecasts at 7.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
• Brazil experienced a slight revision down to 1.6% for 2018, with a mild rebound to 2.1% in 2019.
• Russia's GDP growth forecast remains at 1.8% for both 2018 and 2019.

World Oil Demand

• 2018 oil demand growth is expected to be 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than previous month’s projections.
• 2019 demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also 20 tb/d lower than the previous assessment.
• Total oil demand is expected to reach 98.83 mb/d in 2018 and 100.26 mb/d in 2019.
• OECD will contribute 0.27 mb/d to demand growth, while non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 averaged 59.62 mb/d, up by 2.08 mb/d y-o-y.
• 2019 non-OPEC supply is projected to reach 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 106 tb/d, mainly due to a re-assessment of Chinese supply.
• US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main supply growth drivers.
• Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines in supply.
• OPEC NGL production is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively.
• OPEC crude production increased by 41 tb/d to 32.32 mb/d in July.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• US refining margins dropped to an average of $13.05/b in July, following a peak of $18.55/b in May.
• Gasoline prices in the US retreated slightly from a 33-month high of $96/b in May.
• Diesel demand in the US remained strong with positive year-on-year growth.
• European product markets saw moderate gains, supported by firm exports.
• Asian product markets strengthened due to robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe, and lower crude prices, which reduced feedstock costs.
• Diesel inventories in OECD regions are well below the five-year average, with further drawdowns expected due to strong demand and limited fuel oil desulphurization capacity ahead of IMO 2020 regulations.

Tanker Market

• Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in July due to weak market activity across all classes.
• VLCC spot freight rates fell on all reported routes.
• Aframax freight rates saw mixed results, with average rates declining due to the drop in the Caribbean.
• Clean tanker freight rates fell due to lower freight prices west of Suez.
• The tanker market remained uneventful with limited demand on tonnage.

Stock Movements

• OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m in June to 2,822 mb, 197 mb below the same period in 2017.
• Days of forward cover dropped to 58.8 days, 2.1 days below the five-year average.
• OECD stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC crude demand in 2018 is expected at 32.9 mb/d, down 0.6 mb/d from 2017.
• OPEC crude demand in 2019 is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than 2018.

Key Information

Price Trends

• Crude oil prices increased overall in 2018, with the ORB rising by 39% YTD to $69.14/b.
• Brent/WTI spread narrowed significantly in July, from $8.62/b in June to $4.37/b.
• Speculative activity showed a decline in net long positions, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both experiencing drops.

Supply and Demand Outlook

• Non-OPEC supply in 2018 increased by 2.08 mb/d, while in 2019 it is expected to rise by 2.13 mb/d.
• OPEC supply increased by 41 tb/d in July, averaging 32.32 mb/d.
• Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.64 mb/d in 2018 and 1.43 mb/d in 2019, with non-OECD nations contributing the majority of the growth.

Market Structure

• Dubai market saw easing backwardation, while Brent flipped into contango.
• US WTI backwardation increased significantly due to tightness in Cushing supplies.
• Sour crude discounts to sweet crudes increased globally, except for USGC costal grades.

Regional Highlights

• Asia-Pacific crude market was firm, supported by a narrower Brent/Dubai spread.
• European product markets saw moderate gains, but refining margins remained low.
• US gasoline prices peaked at $96/b in May, while diesel demand remained strong.

Conclusion

The July 2018 oil market report highlights a mixed performance in crude and product prices, driven by supply dynamics, economic growth, and geopolitical factors. OPEC crude prices remained strong, while the transatlantic spread between Brent and WTI narrowed. Non-OPEC supply growth was revised upward, and global demand is expected to continue increasing, albeit at a slower pace. Refinery margins and product prices were influenced by regional demand and supply conditions, with the US and Asia showing distinct trends. The tanker market remained weak, and stock levels continued to decline, indicating tighter market conditions. Overall, the report underscores the complex interplay between supply, demand, and financial market factors in shaping oil prices and market sentiment.