2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_June2018_109页_2mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - June 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the world oil market, focusing on price movements, supply and demand dynamics, economic outlook, and market structures for the second half of 2018. It includes insights into key regions and commodities, highlighting trends and uncertainties affecting the market.

Main Views and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

In May 2018, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by 8.5% to $74.11/barrel, its highest monthly value since November 2014.
Year-to-date (Y-t-d), the ORB value was 31.7% higher at $67.48/barrel, compared to the same period in 2017.
Dated Brent rose by 7.4%, Dubai by 8.7%, and spot WTI by 5.4% month-over-month (m-o-m).
ICE Brent averaged $77.01/barrel, up 7.3%, while NYMEX WTI averaged $69.98/barrel, up 5.5%.
Y-t-d, ICE Brent was 30.6% higher at $70.22/barrel, and NYMEX WTI was 27.7% higher at $65.09/barrel.
The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened to $7.02/barrel, its widest since 2015.
Despite the price surge, speculative net long positions decreased, with the long-to-short ratio dropping to 6:1 for ICE Brent and 7:1 for NYMEX WTI.
Dubai moved deeper into backwardation, while Brent eased toward flattening.

World Economy

The global GDP growth forecast for 2018 remains at 3.8%, consistent with 2017.
US growth is unchanged at 2.7%, up from 2.3% in 2017.
Japan revised its 2018 growth forecast down to 1.2%, from 1.7% in 2017.
The Euro-zone forecast remains at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in 2017.
India and China maintain their 2018 forecasts at 7.3% and 6.5%, respectively.
Brazil revised its 2018 growth forecast to 1.9%, down from 1.0% in 2017.
Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains at 1.8%, unchanged from 2017.

World Oil Demand

Global oil demand growth in 2017 was 1.65 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month.
For 2018, oil demand growth is also unchanged, but downward revisions in Latin America and the Middle East offset upward revisions in China and Other Asia.
OECD demand is forecast to grow by 0.40 mb/d, with OECD Americas leading the growth.
Non-OECD demand is expected to rise by 1.27 mb/d.
Total oil consumption is projected to exceed 100 mb/d in 4Q18.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2017 was 0.88 mb/d, up slightly from the previous month.
For 2018, non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.13 mb/d, with y-o-y growth at 1.86 mb/d.
US is the main driver of supply growth, contributing 1.4 mb/d, followed by Canada and Brazil.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production for 2017 was revised down by 74 tb/d, but growth of 0.09 mb/d is expected.
For 2018, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.12 mb/d, averaging 6.35 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil production in May 2018 averaged 31.87 mb/d, up 35 tb/d from the previous month.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed positive performance in May.
Refinery margins in the US exceeded last year’s record highs due to improved gasoline demand and a tighter middle distillates and fuel oil market.
Product prices in Europe and Asia reached record highs, which weighed on refinery margins.
Asia saw a marginal weakening in product markets due to slower jet/kerosene demand and rising inventory levels.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker freight rates rose by 18% m-o-m in May, while clean tanker rates remained flat.
The increase in spot rates was driven by enhanced activities, tightening tonnage lists, and port/weather delays.
Market returns remained low due to high bunker prices.

Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.7 mb in April to 2,811 mb, below the five-year average by 26 mb.
Crude stocks showed a slight surplus of 0.4 mb, while product stocks had a deficit of 26 mb.
Days of forward cover dropped to 59.1 days, down 2.2 days from the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude demand in 2017 was 33.1 mb/d, up 0.7 mb/d from 2016.
OPEC crude demand in 2018 is forecast to decline to 32.7 mb/d, a 0.3 mb/d decrease from 2017.
Global oil demand growth for 2018 is expected to be 1.61 mb/d, with non-OECD countries leading the growth.
OPEC crude demand in 2H18 is projected to be 33.3 mb/d, down by 0.5 mb/d from 2H17.
Uncertainty remains due to potential changes in world oil demand and non-OPEC supply.

Conclusion

The oil market in the second half of 2018 is expected to show positive demand growth and increased supply from non-OPEC sources, particularly in the US, Canada, and Brazil. However, speculative activity and geopolitical tensions continue to influence prices and market structure. The ORB and Brent prices have seen significant increases, while WTI remains lower due to US production and dollar strength. Refinery margins in the US and Europe are strong, but Asia faces challenges due to inventory pressures and slower demand. The tanker market shows positive freight rate trends, but returns remain low due to bunker costs. OECD and non-OECD demand and supply dynamics will be key to monitoring in the coming months.