世界经济论坛-撒哈拉以南非洲风险景观（英）-2019.9-15页_4mb

Summary of The Sub-Saharan Africa Risks Landscape (September 2019)

Core Content

This white paper, produced in partnership with Marsh & McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance Group, provides an in-depth analysis of the risk landscape in sub-Saharan Africa, combining global and regional perspectives. It highlights the interconnected nature of economic, environmental, and societal risks and their implications for the region's development and stability.

Main Risks Identified

1. Unemployment and Underemployment

• Key Concern: Identified as the most pressing risk for businesses in 22 out of 34 sub-Saharan African countries.
• Data Insight: The unemployment rate is 6%, but 70% of workers are in vulnerable employment, significantly higher than the global average of 46%.
• Demographic Context: The region's youth population is expected to double by 2050, creating both challenges and potential opportunities.
• Labour Market Gap: Only 3.1 million jobs are created annually for 10–12 million youth entering the workforce.

2. Failure of National Governance

• Common Risk: Ranked as the second leading risk to business in the region.
• Political Context: The continent has seen over 27 leadership changes since 2015, reflecting a push for greater accountability and democracy.
• Leadership Commitments: Recent elections in countries like South Africa and Nigeria have seen leaders pledging to combat corruption and improve economic management.

3. Failure of Critical Infrastructure

• Infrastructure Gap: The continent requires $130–170 billion annually in infrastructure investment, with a financing gap of $67.6–107.5 billion.
• Impact on Productivity: Poor infrastructure reduces productivity by approximately 40%.
• Private Sector Contribution: Only 3% of infrastructure investment comes from the private sector, highlighting a reliance on public and foreign funding.

4. Fiscal Crises

• Debt Concerns: Over 40% of sub-Saharan African countries are at risk of major debt crises.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Increased from 23% in 2008 to 46% in 2017.
• Policy Impact: Rising debt servicing costs limit government flexibility and may force increased taxation and reduced spending on development priorities.

5. Energy Price Shock

• Economic Impact: Fluctuations in energy prices are a major concern, affecting competitiveness and business operations.
• Regional Vulnerability: Countries with high reliance on energy imports are particularly affected.

6. Climate Change and Environmental Risks

• Climate Vulnerability: Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be one of the most affected regions by climate change.
• Economic Impact: The GDP of vulnerable countries is expected to rise from $895 billion in 2018 to $1.4 trillion in 2023, representing 48% of the continent’s total GDP.
• Recent Events: Cyclone Idai in 2019 caused at least $2 billion in damages across Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

7. Ebola Outbreaks

• Reoccurrence: Despite past outbreaks, the disease has re-emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 2,500 confirmed cases and 1,600 deaths.
• Global Designation: The WHO declared the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern.”
• Challenges: Poor infrastructure and political instability hinder effective response to such crises.

8. Regional and Global Governance Failures

• Impact on Trade and Investment: Governance failures are a top risk, especially with the upcoming implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which requires robust infrastructure and policy alignment.

Key Findings

• Interconnected Risks: Risks are not isolated but interrelated, with economic, environmental, and political factors influencing one another.
• Global Concerns vs. Local Perceptions: While global risks like climate change and debt are significant, business leaders in sub-Saharan Africa do not always rate them as top concerns.
• Need for Resilience: Building resilience requires cross-sector and multistakeholder collaboration, especially between the public and private sectors.
• Opportunities Amidst Challenges: The region’s youth population and improving economic conditions offer potential for growth, but only if risks are managed effectively.

Methodology

• Surveys Used:
  • Global Risks Perception Survey: Polls experts, policymakers, and private sector members to assess global risks.
  • Executive Opinion Survey: Focuses on business leaders’ views on risks to doing business in their respective countries.
• Data Sources:
  • The Global Risks Report 2019 and the Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018.
• Key Metrics:
  • 916 responses from the Global Risks Perception Survey.
  • 12,548 responses from the Executive Opinion Survey.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the need for strategic investment, governance reform, and climate adaptation to mitigate risks and harness opportunities in sub-Saharan Africa. It also emphasizes the importance of a "glocal" perspective in understanding and addressing the complex risk environment.