2017年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_No_16_October_2017_100页_8mb

Africa's Pulse Summary (October 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic developments and trends shaping Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the context of global economic conditions. It outlines the region's economic recovery, fiscal sustainability challenges, and the importance of skills development for long-term growth and prosperity.

Main Points

Economic Recovery

• GDP Growth: After a sharp slowdown in 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa is showing signs of recovery in 2017, with GDP growth expected to rise from 1.3% in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017, slightly below the April forecast of 2.6%.
• Leading Economies: The recovery is being driven by the region's largest economies, including Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • Oil and Gas: Nigeria exited a five-quarter recession, and South Africa emerged from two quarters of negative growth. Oil prices rebounded, supporting economic activity.
  • Mining: Metals prices surged, leading to increased investment in the mining sector.
  • Agriculture: Improved weather conditions boosted food production, easing food price inflation.
  • Non-Resource Economies: These countries, mainly agricultural exporters, have maintained stable growth due to domestic demand and infrastructure investment.

Global Trends

• Global Growth: The global economy strengthened in 2017, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.9%, above the April forecast of 2.7%.
• Trade and Commodity Prices:
  • Goods Trade: Global trade rebounded, with export growth trending upward in advanced economies and remaining firm in EMDEs.
  • Commodity Prices: Crude oil prices rose, metals prices surged, and agricultural prices were mixed, with cocoa prices falling significantly.
• Financial Conditions: Global financing conditions remained supportive, with bond spreads narrowing to levels last seen in 2014. Investment-grade borrowers benefited the most from improved borrowing conditions.

Fiscal Space and Sustainability

• Fiscal Deficits: Fiscal deficits are projected to narrow slightly in 2017, but remain high overall.
• Debt Levels: General government debt to GDP increased by about 15 percentage points in 2015–16 compared to 2010–13.
• Debt Sustainability: The fiscal sustainability gap is significant, with the primary balance being negative in the post-crisis period.
• Country-Level Fiscal Conditions: Most countries experienced tighter fiscal conditions, with some showing a more than 2.5-year increase in the number of tax years required to repay debt.

Skills Development

• Importance of Skills: Building cognitive, socio-emotional, and technical skills is crucial for realizing the region's development potential.
• Current State: The region's workforce is among the least skilled globally, limiting economic prospects.
• Education Spending: Public education spending accounts for about 15% of total public spending and nearly 5% of GDP, the highest ratio among developing regions.
• Completion Rates: Despite increased enrollment, completion rates for primary and secondary education remain low, with less than 50% of children completing lower secondary education and under 10% reaching higher education.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Foundational Skills: Investing in foundational skills for children, youth, and adults is key to enhancing productivity and inclusion.
  • Technical and Vocational Training: Demand-driven technical and vocational education and training, along with entrepreneurship and business training, should be prioritized.
  • STEM Fields: Focus on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) to support technology adoption in a favorable policy environment.
  • Labor Market Training: Programs should target disadvantaged youth and improve skills in low-productivity sectors.

Key Information

Risks and Outlook

• Short-Term Outlook: Growth is expected to moderate to 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, still below pre-crisis levels.
• Challenges: Economic growth remains below the pre-crisis average and the 2010–14 average. Investment and productivity growth are still weak.
• Medium-Term Risks:
  • External: Lower commodity prices, faster normalization of U.S. monetary policy, and China's reforms.
  • Internal: Delays in policy implementation, political uncertainty, security tensions, and inadequate rainfall.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Adjustment: Countries need to implement more comprehensive fiscal adjustment measures to reduce deficits and improve debt sustainability.
• Structural Reforms: Structural measures are necessary to boost productivity, investment, and economic diversification.
• Investment Efficiency: Investment efficiency has been declining in less resilient economies, highlighting the need for skill development to enhance the effectiveness of capital accumulation.
• Skills Investment: Countries should focus on making skills investment smarter and more targeted, balancing productivity growth with economic inclusion.

Conclusion

Sub-Saharan Africa is on a path of recovery, but the pace of growth is still below historical averages. The region's fiscal space is constrained, and external conditions are more favorable than before. However, the recovery is weak in several key dimensions, including per capita growth and productivity. Building a skilled workforce is essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, and this requires a strategic and comprehensive policy approach that prioritizes foundational skills and supports technical and vocational training. The report emphasizes the need for improved fiscal policies, structural reforms, and targeted investments in skills to unlock the region's economic potential.