2021-09-30-世界银行-过度自信_经济和健康断层线如何让中东和北非没有做好面对新冠病毒的准备（英）_76页_2mb

Economic Context: MENA experienced an uneven and tenuous economic recovery post-COVID-19. GDP per capita remained below pre-pandemic levels, with oil-exporting countries recovering faster than oil-importers. Commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil, significantly impacted growth, exacerbated by political uncertainty and slow vaccination rates.

Health System Weaknesses:

• Fiscal Constraints: Public sector expansion crowded out health investments. Poor fiscal space limited funding for health systems, especially in middle-income countries.
• Resource Limitations: Inadequate financing, workforce shortages, and supply chain inefficiencies hindered health system functionality. Out-of-pocket spending was high in many countries, undermining financial protection.
• Data Deficiencies: Limited availability and transparency of health data impeded effective pandemic response and surveillance.

Overconfidence: MENA governments often underestimated their health system deficiencies. Objective assessments revealed underperformance in preparedness compared to income-peers, especially in surveillance, information sharing, and resource allocation, while self-assessments were overly optimistic.

Pandemic Impact: COVID-19 exposed pre-existing vulnerabilities, including strained staffing and supply chains, leading to disruptions in care for non-COVID conditions. The region’s uneven vaccination progress exacerbated these challenges, with middle-income and low-income countries lagging.

Recommendations: Strengthening data systems, improving transparency, enhancing integration of health information, and increasing resource allocation to preventive care and surveillance are critical for future health system resilience.