2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Philippines_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_4mb

2017 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV consultation with the Philippines, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), assessed the country's economic performance, outlook, and policy recommendations. The consultation concluded on October 26, 2017, with the Executive Board endorsing the staff's appraisal.

Economic Performance

• Growth: The Philippine economy continued to perform well, with real GDP growth at 6.9% in 2016 and 6.4% in the first half of 2017. Growth is projected at 6.6% in 2017 and 6.8% in the medium term.
• Inflation: Headline and core inflation remained near the target band of 3±1% in 2017, supported by stable commodity prices and well-anchored inflation expectations.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate stayed low at 5.5%.
• Fiscal Position: The national government deficit was at 2.4% of GDP in 2017, and the general government net debt was at 34.6% of GDP.
• External Position: The current account balance was near zero in 2017, with gross international reserves at US$81 billion (or 8.7 months of imports).

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: The current fiscal stance and deficit target of 3% of GDP are appropriate. Priority spending should be financed through additional revenue mobilization, including tax and administrative reforms, to ensure debt sustainability and avoid overheating.
• Monetary Policy: The monetary stance remains appropriate, but the BSP should be prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures rise. The unwinding of high reserve requirements should be carefully calibrated to maintain domestic liquidity.
• Macroprudential Policies: These should be used to address systemic risks, particularly high credit growth and sectoral concentration. The BSP should raise capital requirements in case of a broad-based credit boom and implement targeted measures for excessive sectoral credit growth.
• Structural Policies: These should focus on reducing regional disparities, promoting capital market development, enhancing financial inclusion, and opening up to foreign direct investment (FDI).

Risks and Outlook

• Outlook: The economic outlook is favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside, mainly from external sources such as lower growth in China and U.S. monetary policy tightening.
• Domestic Risks: Potential overheating due to high credit growth, buoyant private investment, and fiscal expansion without tax reform could lead to inflation, a deteriorating current account balance, and peso depreciation.
• External Risks: Spillovers from global economic conditions, including trade tensions and capital flow volatility, pose challenges to the external sector.
• Scenario Analysis:
  • Reform-and-Spend: Assumes gradual tax and administrative reforms, leading to a sustainable rise in infrastructure investment and higher potential growth (7.5% by 2022). Inflation may temporarily rise but will return to target levels.
  • No Reform-and-Spend: Assumes no additional revenue from tax reform and no structural reforms. This could lead to a wider deficit (5.5% of GDP) and a lower potential growth (7% by 2022), with higher inflation and a deteriorating current account balance.

Financial Stability

• Credit Growth: Credit growth accelerated to 19.7% of GDP in 2017, driven by consumer credit and real estate loans. While no credit boom has been observed, credit gaps could approach early warning levels.
• Systemic Risks: High credit growth, loan concentration, and potential overheating are the main risks to financial stability. The IMF recommends using macroprudential tools to address these risks.
• Exchange Rate: The peso has depreciated by 7% since end-2015. The exchange rate should remain flexible, with foreign exchange intervention limited to smoothing excessive volatility.
• Reserves and REER: Foreign reserves are substantial, but the real effective exchange rate (REER) is estimated to be undervalued between 0% and 4%, influenced by the current account gap and infrastructure constraints.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities broadly agreed with the IMF's projections and scenario analysis.
• They emphasized the importance of maintaining the 3% of GDP deficit target to prevent future fiscal expansion.
• They acknowledged the need to monitor credit growth and maintain macrofinancial stability.
• They supported the use of macroprudential policies and the implementation of structural reforms to promote inclusive growth.

Key Economic Indicators (2012-2018)

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that the Philippines is well-positioned to address its socioeconomic challenges and maintain macrofinancial stability. The country's strong fundamentals and available policy space provide a good foundation for pursuing an inclusive growth agenda. However, continued vigilance against risks, particularly from high credit growth and external shocks, is essential. The authorities are encouraged to implement comprehensive tax reforms, expand infrastructure, and maintain a balanced fiscal and monetary stance.