2023-05-23-美国能源部-商用落地路径_长时储能_80页_2mb

LDES Commercialization Pathway Summary

Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is critical for grid flexibility in a decarbonized power system.

Strategic Role of LDES

• Supports grid flexibility through energy shifting, enhancing renewable integration
• Provides reliability and resilience, particularly as variable renewables expand
• Competes with established technologies like Li-ion batteries and natural gas peaking
• Can supplant 200+ GW of natural gas peaking capacity by 2050 in net-zero scenarios

Current Status & Technology Landscape

• Key Technologies: Mechanical (PSH, CAES), thermal (molten salt), electrochemical (flow batteries)
• Duration Segments:
  • Inter-day (10–36 hours): Primarily mechanical and electrochemical
  • Multi-day/week (36–160+ hours): Mostly thermal and electrochemical
• Performance:
  • Inter-day: Capex $1,100–$1,400/kW, RTE ~69%, 25-year lifetime
  • Multi-day: Capex $1,900–$2,500/kW, RTE ~45%, 27-year lifetime
• Market Opportunities:
  • Use cases: Load management, renewable firming, microgrid resilience, transmission deferral

Commercialization Pathways

Technology Milestones

• Required Improvements:
  • Inter-day: Reduce capex by 54%, improve RTE by 12%
  • Multi-day: Reduce capex by 65%, increase RTE by 10%
• Deployment Targets:
  • By 2030:
    • Inter-day: $650/kW, ~75 GW
    • Multi-day: $1,100/kW, ~189 GW
  • By 2050: ~600 GW total

Key Accelerators

• Near-Term:
  • $9–$12B in supportive investment by 2030
  • Stakeholder interventions across markets, policy, and supply chain
• Medium-Term:
  • Establish 10–15 GW/yr manufacturing capacity by 2035
  • Develop standardized demonstration frameworks
• Long-Term:
  • Achieve ~$330B cumulative investment by 2050
  • Master industrial-scale deployment across multiple durations

Key Challenges

1. Technology Performance:

   • Need 45–55% cost reduction by 2030 across most technologies
   • Must improve roundtrip efficiency by 7–15%
   • Achieve performance targets through:
     • Technology development (R&D)
     • Economies of scale (deployment learning)
     • Supply chain optimization

2. Market Mechanisms:

   • Need predictable, long-duration capacity payments ($50–$75/kW-yr)
   • Requires grid code updates for valuation of long-duration services
   • Need for duration-specificcapacity market products

3. Supply Chain Development:

   • Must train workforce across materials handling and specialized construction
   • Need for secure raw material supply chains (particularly Ni, V)
   • Requires national manufacturing hubs with GW-scale capacity

Success Metrics

• Leading Indicators:

  • System performance (RTE, lifetime)
  • Supply chain maturity
  • Regulatory frameworks

• Lagging Indicators:

  • Deployed capacity (GW)
  • Private capital commitments ($B)
  • Industrial manufacturing rates (GW/yr)

• Outcomes:

  • CO₂e reduction potential ($10–$20B/year savings vs alternatives)
  • Job creation (~2.1M "direct" job-years)
  • Grid reliability improvements

Implementation Recommendations

1. Prioritize "make-a-market" policies through:

   • Capacity market reforms for duration-based payments
   • Transmission planning that values storage input
   • PUC resource planning standards accounting for longer-term storage value

2. Accelerate deployment through:

   • Targeted government support for early projects
   • Manufacturing hub establishment
   • Workforce development programs

3. Enhance market value recognition:

   • Standardized valuation methodologies
   • Economic dispatch reforms accounting for storage services
   • Interconnection reforms reducing project delays

This structured approach enables coordinated action across the ecosystem to achieve LDES commercialization by 2030.