战略与国际研究中心-Pakistan-after-Musharraf_2页_114kb

Pakistan after Musharraf: Trouble and Opportunity Summary

Core Content

The article, Pakistan after Musharraf: Trouble and Opportunity by Teresita C. Schaffer, discusses the political transition in Pakistan following the resignation of former President Pervez Musharraf in 2008. It highlights both the challenges and opportunities that arise in this new phase of Pakistan's political landscape, emphasizing the need for the United States to recalibrate its relationship with the country while supporting its internal reforms.

Main Points

1. Transition to Elected Government

• Musharraf's resignation should allow for a smoother transition to an elected government, which is crucial for restoring democratic institutions in Pakistan.
• Despite this, the political crisis is not over; the country still faces significant challenges.
• The U.S. must now engage with Pakistan's new civilian leadership without the personal connection to Musharraf.

2. U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• The U.S. administration was slow to recognize Musharraf's declining relevance and continued to view him as a stabilizing factor.
• The U.S. needs to shift its focus to supporting the new government and avoid being a central figure in Pakistani politics, which has led to resentment.

3. Key Issues for Pakistan

• Afghanistan Insurgency: Pakistan's internal Taliban insurgency is a major concern for the U.S., as it directly impacts the stability of Afghanistan.
• Border Security: The U.S. is particularly concerned about the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where cross-border attacks and insurgent activity persist.
• Economic Crisis: Pakistan is facing a severe economic downturn, with rising food and fuel prices, a deteriorating balance of payments, and a strained budget.
• India-Pakistan Relations: Tensions in Kashmir are threatening the fragile peace between the two nations, and Pakistan's internal political factions may be contributing to instability.

4. Political Divisions in Pakistan

• The country's major political leaders, Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, are not in office but lead the parties that gained popularity in the last election.
• Their rivalry over the presidency and the restoration of Musharraf's dismissed judges is a significant source of internal conflict.
• The military's withdrawal from political affairs is a positive sign, but the potential for future military intervention remains if the current dysfunction continues.

Key Information

• Musharraf's Departure: Removes a common enemy between Zardari and Sharif but also creates new political tensions.
• U.S. Role: Must support Pakistan's transition to a civilian government while avoiding over-involvement that could exacerbate public resentment.
• Joint Strategy Needed: A coordinated approach involving political, economic, and military efforts is essential for addressing the border issue and the insurgency.
• Long-Term Reforms: The U.S. and Pakistan must prioritize long-term reforms in agriculture, macroeconomics, and regional relations rather than just short-term fixes.

Conclusion

The article concludes that while Pakistan faces numerous immediate challenges, the U.S. has a critical role in supporting the country's transition to democracy and long-term stability. It warns against the past tendency of both nations to prioritize urgent issues over long-term planning, urging a more balanced and strategic approach to U.S.-Pakistan cooperation.