2006-10-25-皮尤-Democrats_Hold_Double-Digit_Lead_in_Competitive_Districts_50页_154kb

2006 Midterm Election Summary

Core Content

With less than two weeks to go before the 2006 midterm elections, the Democratic Party holds a significant lead over the Republican Party in competitive House districts. This lead is consistent with their national advantage, where Democrats lead by 11 points (50%-39%) in competitive districts and by 11 points (49%-38%) in safe districts. The Pew Research Center survey, which includes an oversample of 528 voters from 40 competitive districts, highlights this trend.

Main Points

• Democratic Advantage: Democrats maintain a double-digit lead in both competitive and safe districts, with the largest margin in competitive districts.
• Iraq as a Top Issue: Iraq remains the most important issue for voters, especially in competitive districts, where 50% cite it as a top issue. Public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative about the war.
• Economic Concerns: Economic optimism has not increased, with 65% of Americans viewing the economy as only fair or poor. Democrats and independents are more pessimistic about the economy than Republicans.
• Party Image: The Democratic Party's image has improved since the summer, with 53% expressing a favorable opinion, while the Republican Party remains at 41%, with little change.
• Voter Shifts: Many groups that were evenly divided in 2002 have shifted decisively in favor of Democrats, including women, working moms, and younger voters. The GOP has lost ground among married moms and other demographics.
• Congressional Favorability: Views of Congress have fallen to an all-time low, with 41% favorable and 46% unfavorable. This is the lowest level ever recorded in a Pew survey.
• Terrorism as GOP Strength: Despite the Democratic lead on most issues, the Republican Party is still seen as better at dealing with terrorism by a 10-point margin (44%-34%).
• Campaign Activity: Voters in competitive districts are more likely to have been contacted by campaigns (60%) compared to those in safe districts (40%), though campaign commercials are common in both.
• Bush Approval: President Bush's approval rating remains low, with 38% of the general public approving of his job performance, and even lower in competitive districts (36%).

Key Information

• Competitive Districts: Identified by political analysts, these districts are mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. 34 are currently held by Republicans, and 6 by Democrats.
• Voter Behavior: In competitive districts, 57% disapprove of Bush, compared to 60% in safe Democratic districts. This suggests a decline in Republican support even in their traditional strongholds.
• Immigration: The GOP has closed the gap with Democrats on immigration, with a 4-point lead in favor of the GOP in 2006, compared to a 16-point lead in the spring.
• Political Reforms: A majority (78%) of voters support requiring photo ID for voting, though Democrats are less supportive than Republicans.
• Money in Politics: 51% of the public believes new laws could reduce the role of money in politics, with Democrats more likely to support this than Republicans or independents.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The Democratic Party is gaining momentum heading into the 2006 midterms, with strong support in competitive districts and a growing favorable image among voters. While the GOP still has an edge on certain issues like terrorism, their overall standing is weakened by negative perceptions of the Iraq war, economic conditions, and declining support among key demographics. The political landscape has shifted significantly since 2002, with many groups now favoring the Democrats over the Republicans.