2022-03-23-全球半导体行业-更高的高点或更高的低点_晶圆厂设备趋势线强劲的5个结构性原因_46页_4mb

Morgan Stanley: 5 Structural Forces Driving Strong Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Trend Line

Despite expecting WFE spending to decline in 2023, Morgan Stanley highlights five structural factors ensuring a robust long-term trend line above prior peaks, making semicap stocks compelling despite cyclical volatility.

Key Arguments

1. Global Localization Trends

• Escalating geopolitical tensions (trade restrictions, CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act) drive massive investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity globally (China: $12-13Bn in 2022).
• US/China/EU/Japan initiatives (e.g., CHIPS for America, European Chips Act) are accelerating localization, with China's market remaining the strongest capital spend driver.

2. EUV Lithography Adoption Driving Capital Intensity

• Contrary to expectations, EUV technology adoption has increased, not decreased, capital intensity. The complexity of EUV tools offsets previous efficiency gains from multi-patterning.
• Foundries like TSMC now require more expensive equipment per wafer as they adopt EUV for advanced nodes, increasing the overall equipment spend.

3. Slowing Moore's Law Fuels Demand for Cutting Edge

• Even though transistor density growth is decelerating, chip performance demands persist (e.g., AI, auto semis), sustaining capital expenditure on leading-edge nodes.
• Despite challenges at 3nm (higher costs), adoption of 3nm and 5nm continues, driven by competitive differentiation (e.g., Apple's engagement with TSMC's 2nm).

4. Trailing Edge Capital Intensity Rises

• Increased depreciation burdens from new plants replacing aging fabs have raised trailing-edge capital intensity (up 20-40% since 2018).
• Companies are migrating capacity from 10/28nm to 7nm due to performance/efficiency benefits, rather than aging out older nodes.

5. NAND Capital Intensity Remains High Post-3D Transition

• Transition to 3D NAND shifted spending focus from "2D shrink" to vertical scaling (layers), maintaining elevated capital intensity.
• Cost reductions have slowed significantly since 2015, suggesting structurally higher WFE spending for NAND flash production.

Bottom Line

• WFE spending is structurally stronger than expected, with multiple tailwinds (geopolitical, technological, demand-driven):
• Lam Research (US Top Pick), Tokyo Electron (Japan), ACM Research/AMEC (China) stand out as beneficiaries.
• The long-term trend line remains firmly upward despite cyclical variations.

Key Risks

• Potential slowdown in demand for 3D NAND
• Intensifying competitive pressures for China's memory suppliers
• Global macro risks (recession) may affect trailing edge spending
• Equipment cost escalation at leading-edge nodes

Note: Estimated peak WFE revenue in 2022 exceeded $100Bn, while capital spending continues to be volatile across different node segments and geographies.