2018年-查塔姆研究所_Egypt039s_Military_Council_and_the_Transition_to_Democracy_12页_249kb

Egypt's Military Council and the Transition to Democracy

Core Content

This document analyzes the role of Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in the country's transition to democracy following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. It highlights the complex relationship between the military, political parties, and the Egyptian public during this period, emphasizing the challenges to democratic consolidation and the enduring influence of the military in Egyptian politics.

Main Points

1. Military's Dominance in Egyptian Politics

• The military has had a long-standing influence in Egypt, dating back to the 1952 coup by Gamal Abdel Nasser, which established a dictatorship that lasted for nearly 60 years.
• The SCAF, composed of senior military officers, took control after Mubarak's resignation in 2011 and has since attempted to guide the transition to democracy.
• Despite its efforts, the SCAF has often used tactics reminiscent of the old regime, such as maintaining the Emergency Law, which allows for the suppression of dissent and the use of military courts for civilians.

2. Public Perception and Military's Role

• The military is still viewed by many Egyptians as a protector of the nation and a stabilizing force, especially in times of uncertainty.
• However, this image is increasingly challenged due to the military's continued involvement in politics and its repressive actions.
• The public's desire for security and economic stability has allowed the SCAF to retain influence, even as democratic institutions emerge.

3. The Presidential Election and Constitutional Process

• The June 2012 presidential election was seen as a critical moment in determining the SCAF's future role.
• The Muslim Brotherhood, the most successful political party in the parliamentary elections, sought to negotiate with the SCAF to ensure a smooth transition.
• However, the SCAF has resisted full withdrawal from politics, aiming to retain control over key constitutional and legislative processes.

4. The Selmy Document and Supra-Constitutional Powers

• The SCAF issued the Selmy document, which asserts the military's right to overrule parts of the constitution that conflict with its interests.
• This document was widely criticized and rejected by the opposition, but it remains a significant point of contention.
• The SCAF's attempts to maintain control have been met with resistance from both the parliamentary process and civil society.

5. The Muslim Brotherhood and the SCAF

• The Muslim Brotherhood leadership initially adopted a non-confrontational stance towards the SCAF, prioritizing stability and security.
• This approach alienated many of the revolutionary forces, as the Brotherhood was seen as collaborating with the military.
• The Brotherhood later shifted its position, calling for protests and demanding a transfer of power from the SCAF.

6. The SCAF's Economic and Political Interests

• The SCAF seeks to maintain its economic independence, including control over military aid and budgetary secrecy.
• The military has significant business interests, and there are concerns about its influence over the civilian economy.
• The SCAF's desire for a "safe exit" from power includes legal immunity for its members for past actions.

Key Information

• Military's Historical Role: The military has been a central force in Egyptian politics since the 1952 coup, often acting as a guardian of the state.
• Emergency Law: Still in effect, it has been used to justify military trials of civilians and suppress political dissent.
• SCAF's Ambitions: The SCAF aims to retain influence in the new political order, often through legal and constitutional means.
• Political Divisions: The Muslim Brotherhood and secular parties have conflicting views on the direction of the new constitution.
• Public and International Pressure: The SCAF faces increasing pressure from both domestic protests and international observers to relinquish power.
• Military's Tactics: The SCAF has used tactics from the Mubarak era, including repression, media control, and the manipulation of public perception.

Conclusion

The transition to democracy in Egypt is fraught with challenges, particularly due to the SCAF's entrenched power and resistance to full civilian oversight. While the military claims to support the democratic process, its actions suggest otherwise. The outcome of the presidential election and the constitutional debates will be crucial in determining the extent to which Egypt can move towards a fully civilian government.