BIS国际清算银行-E-commerce-in-the-pandemic-and-beyond_9页_674kb

BIS Bulletin No. 36: E-commerce in the Pandemic and Beyond

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin examines the rapid growth and transformation of e-commerce during the Covid-19 pandemic and its potential long-term implications. It explores how the pandemic has accelerated digital shopping, altered consumer behavior, and influenced the evolution of e-commerce platforms and payment methods. The analysis draws on a variety of data sources, including official statistics, private sector surveys, and proprietary data from companies like Mercado Libre and global card networks.

Main Points

• Acceleration of E-commerce Growth: The pandemic significantly accelerated the adoption of e-commerce, with online retail sales increasing by 4-7 percentage points in China, Germany, the UK, and the US in 2020.
• Different Stages of the Pandemic: The pandemic's impact on e-commerce can be divided into three stages:
  • Precautionary Stage: Increased demand for medical supplies and personal protective equipment.
  • Stockpiling Stage: Rise in demand for household essentials and non-perishable goods.
  • Shelter-at-Home Stage: Surge in demand for technology, exercise equipment, and education/entertainment services.
• Regional Variations: Latin America, which had low e-commerce penetration, saw a dramatic increase in online purchases, with consumers making a year’s worth of purchases in just two months.
• Data Sources: The report utilizes a mix of official and private sector data to track e-commerce trends, including card-not-present (CNP) transactions, which have seen significant growth.
• Structural Changes in Consumer Behavior: Some changes in shopping and payment habits, such as increased use of CNP payments and online delivery, may persist beyond the pandemic, indicating a structural shift in the digital economy.

Key Findings

• E-commerce Penetration and Growth: Countries with lower pre-pandemic e-commerce penetration experienced faster growth during the pandemic, suggesting a "catching-up" effect.
• Impact of Containment Measures: Stricter containment measures were correlated with higher e-commerce growth, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior due to lockdowns.
• Price Trends: Online prices rose during the pandemic due to excess demand and supply chain disruptions, with some sectors experiencing significant price spikes.
• Long-Term Consumer Behavior Shifts: A significant portion of consumers, especially in emerging market economies, expect to shop online more frequently post-pandemic. This is particularly true for younger users.
• Adaptation of E-commerce Platforms: E-commerce platforms have expanded their product offerings and services, incorporating automated delivery technologies and new commerce channels like livestreaming and online education.

Implications

• The pandemic has acted as a catalyst for e-commerce growth, especially in regions with limited digital infrastructure.
• Changes in consumer behavior, such as increased reliance on online shopping and remote payments, may lead to long-term structural shifts in the retail and digital economy.
• E-commerce platforms are evolving to meet new consumer demands, indicating a broader transformation in how goods and services are delivered and consumed.
• The data collected during the pandemic may serve as a valuable tool for future economic analysis and policy-making.

Conclusion

The pandemic has not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce but also highlighted its potential to drive long-term structural changes in the global economy. The shift in consumer behavior, the growth of CNP transactions, and the adaptation of e-commerce platforms all point to a more digital and integrated retail landscape. These trends are expected to continue and shape the future of commerce and economic activity.

References

• Auer, R, J Frost, T Lammer, T Rice and A Wadsworth (2020): "Inclusive payments for the post-pandemic world", SUERF Policy Notes, no 193.
• Bank for International Settlements (2020): "Central banks in the digital era", Annual Economic Report 2020, June, Chapter III.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (2020): "Effects of COVID-19 pandemic and response on the consumer price index".
• Carstens, A (2020): "The Great Reallocation", Project Syndicate, 12 October.
• Cavallo, A (2018): "More Amazon effects: online competition and pricing behaviors", NBER Working Paper 25138.
• Chen, S, D Igan, N Pierri and A Presbitero (2020): "Tracking the economic impact of COVID-19 and mitigation policies in Europe and the United States", IMF Working Paper, no 20/125.
• GlobalWebIndex (2020): "GWI Coronavirus Research: Multi-market research wave 3".
• IBM (2020): "COVID-19 and the future of business".
• Jaravell, X and M O'Connell (2020): "Inflation Spike and Falling Product Variety during the Great Lockdown", CEPR Discussion Paper 14880.
• South China Morning Post (2020): "Will the coronavirus crisis, like Sars, give birth to the next big thing in China tech?".
• World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) (2020): "Global innovation index 2020".
• World Trade Organisation (WTO) (2020): "E-commerce, trade and the Covid-19 pandemic".

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