2012年-世界发展银行全球_Sri_Lankan_Population_Change_and_Demographic_Bonus_Challenges_and_Opportunities_in_the_New_Millennium_68页_1mb

Summary of Report No. 37: Sri Lankan Population Change and Demographic Bonus Challenges and Opportunities in the New Millennium

Core Content

This report examines the demographic changes in Sri Lanka and their implications for economic and social development, focusing on the population's age and sex structure, fertility and mortality trends, migration patterns, and the concept of the demographic bonus. It also highlights emerging population issues such as aging, disability, and the rise of female-headed households, and discusses the policy and institutional requirements to address these challenges.

Main Population Trends

• Population Growth:

  • The Sri Lankan population has grown from 2.4 million in 1871 to 20 million in 2010, an increase of almost eight times.
  • The growth rate has declined over time, currently at around 1% annually, although the population continues to grow.
  • The population is unevenly distributed, with the Western Province and the Wet Zone being the most densely populated regions.

• Age Structure:

  • The age structure of the population has undergone significant changes, with a shift towards an older population.
  • By 2021, the elderly population (60+) is expected to double from 1.7 million to 3.6 million.
  • The proportion of elderly is projected to increase from 9.2% in 2001 to 16.7% in 2021 and 25% by 2041.
  • The dependency ratio is expected to rise after 2041 due to the increasing proportion of elderly.

• Fertility Trends:

  • Fertility declined significantly during the 1960s-1990s, reaching a replacement level (TFR = 2.1) by 1994.
  • However, the TFR increased again by 2006-07, reaching 2.3, similar to the level in 1991.
  • The increase is attributed to a slight decline in the age at marriage, reduced use of terminal contraception, and a decline in the reliance on abortion for family planning.
  • The fertility rate in Sri Lanka remains higher than that of South Korea, which reached replacement level in 1985 and below in the early 1990s.

• Mortality Trends:

  • Mortality has declined dramatically, especially after World War II, due to improved health services, education, and food distribution.
  • Life expectancy at birth is now around 68 years for males and 77 years for females.
  • The decline in mortality has contributed to the aging population and increased dependency.

• Migration:

  • Migration, particularly for foreign employment, has had a significant impact on the population structure.
  • Over 250,000 people leave Sri Lanka annually, mainly to the Middle East and developed countries.
  • A large proportion of these migrants are women in their reproductive years, affecting the working-age population and increasing the dependency burden.

Demographic Bonus and Economic Implications

• Demographic Bonus:

  • The demographic bonus period in Sri Lanka occurred between 1991 and 2017, characterized by a higher proportion of working-age individuals relative to dependents.
  • This period was favorable for economic growth, as the working-age population was large and the dependency ratio was low.
  • However, the window of opportunity is closing, and the dependency ratio is expected to increase, which could hinder future economic growth.

• Economic and Employment Patterns:

  • The structure of GDP and employment generation across agriculture, industry, and services is analyzed.
  • Current employment patterns are not sufficient to support the projected economic growth and the utilization of the demographic bonus.

• Challenges for the Future:

  • The aging population and increasing dependency ratio will pose significant challenges for economic development and social security.
  • Female-headed households are becoming more common due to factors like widowhood, migration, and unstable marriages.
  • The social security system and retirement benefits are inadequate and need urgent reform to support the elderly and the growing dependency burden.

Policy and Institutional Requirements

• Political Stability:

  • Political stability is essential for economic development and the utilization of the demographic bonus.
  • It provides a conducive environment for investment and the growth of a knowledge-based economy.

• Savings and Investments:

  • Increasing domestic savings and promoting investment are critical for sustainable development.
  • The government's Ten Year Plan aims to make Sri Lanka the "Knowledge Hub of Asia," which requires substantial investment in human capital.

• Knowledge Economy and Human Capital:

  • Developing a knowledge economy and enhancing women's participation in the labor force and policy-making positions are important for economic growth.
  • Technological and academic advancement among women can increase their competitiveness in the labor market.

• Social Security and Retirement Benefits:

  • A robust social security system and retirement benefits are necessary to support the aging population.
  • The current system is inadequate and needs improvement to meet the needs of the elderly and the increasing dependency burden.

Conclusion

• The demographic transition in Sri Lanka has created a demographic bonus that was favorable for economic development, but this opportunity is now waning.
• The aging population and rising dependency ratio pose significant challenges for future economic and social planning.
• The government needs to implement policies that promote economic development, enhance the knowledge economy, and improve the social security system to address the needs of the elderly and female-headed households.
• The role of women in the labor force and policy-making must be strengthened to ensure sustainable development and economic growth.