2012年-世界发展银行全球_Sri_Lanka_-_Demographic_Transition___Facing_the_Challenges_of_an_Aging_Population_with_Few_Resources_48页_984kb

Summary of Report No. 73162-LK: Demographic Transition in Sri Lanka

Core Content

This report analyzes the demographic transition in Sri Lanka, its economic implications, and the impact on employment, productivity, and social safety net systems. It emphasizes the challenges and opportunities posed by an aging population, low fertility rates, and increasing dependency ratios.

Main Findings

I. Demographic Window of Opportunity

• Large Working Age Population: Currently, 67% of Sri Lanka's population is in the working age group, providing a significant demographic dividend.
• Aging Population: The elderly population (age 60 and over) is expected to rise from 12.5% to 16.7% by 2021, and one out of every four people will be elderly by 2041.
• Dependency Ratio Increase: The dependency ratio is projected to increase from 55 per 100 working age persons in 2001 to 58.3 by 2031, with a significant rise after 2041.
• Life Cycle Deficit: Sri Lanka has an early life cycle deficit, where consumption exceeds income for the elderly after age 57. The lifecycle deficit is expected to grow as the population ages.

II. Labor Market Characteristics

• Informal Sector Dominance: The informal sector employs a large proportion of the workforce, with 63% of women and 70% of men working in informal jobs.
• Low Female Labor Force Participation: Despite high female schooling, female labor force participation remains low, influenced by child-rearing responsibilities.
• High Youth Unemployment: Youth unemployment rates are high, with a U-shaped relationship between education and labor force participation for women.
• Occupational Segregation: Significant gender earnings gaps exist in the private sector, with women earning 30–36% less than men. The public sector shows gender parity in earnings.
• Service Sector Dominance: The service sector is the largest employer, contributing nearly 60% of GDP, with a higher proportion of women employed in modern services compared to men.

III. Social Safety Net Programs

• Poverty Levels: About 9% of the population is estimated to be poor based on the national poverty line.
• Samurdhi Program: The main welfare program targets the poorest 10%, with 60% coverage but low targeting and adequacy. It reduces poverty by 1.2 percentage points and the poverty gap by 11.6%.
• Disability/Relief Payments: These are strongly progressive, with 63.4% of funds going to the poorest decile, but their impact on poverty is minimal due to small scale.
• Pension System: Covers 10–15% of the elderly, with the public sector being the main provider. It reduces poverty by 1.6 percentage points and the poverty gap by 18% at a higher cost.
• Remittances: Progressive in distribution, reaching the poorest 10% with 48% of transfers. They reduce poverty by 2.8 percentage points and the poverty gap by 31%.

IV. Policy Options

• Improve Female Labor Force Participation: Address family care responsibilities through formal childcare facilities, tax incentives, and subsidized childcare.
• Enhance Vocational Training: Focus on both young and middle-aged workers to increase labor productivity, especially for the expanding service sector.
• Reform Labor Regulations: Balance worker protection with job creation and labor mobility, considering the need to increase retirement age due to higher life expectancy.
• Extend Social Insurance to Informal Workers: Provide access to social insurance, credit, and other services for the majority of informal sector workers.
• Strengthen Social Safety Nets: Increase spending on social safety nets to address the growing vulnerability of the elderly, who receive little public support or remittances.
• Review Family Laws: Assess the effectiveness of the Protection of the Rights of Elders Act and consider regional variations in demographic trends due to the impact of the Sri Lankan Civil War.

Key Information

• Demographic Transition: Sri Lanka is experiencing a demographic window of opportunity with a large working-age population and an aging society.
• Economic Implications: The aging population and increasing dependency ratio will challenge economic growth and social protection systems.
• Data Sources: The report uses data from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey (SLDHS), Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), and National Transfer of Accounts (NTA) methodology.
• Policy Recommendations: The report suggests reforms in labor regulations, social safety nets, and education systems to address the challenges of demographic transition.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Projected dependency ratios from 2001 to 2081.
• Table 1: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) by country in South Asia.
• Table 2: Review of wealth differentials for various indicators.
• Table 3: Composition of services sector employment in 2009.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka is at a critical juncture in its demographic transition, with the potential to leverage its working-age population for economic growth. However, the aging population and increasing dependency ratio will pose significant challenges to the labor market and social safety net systems. Timely and effective policy actions are essential to ensure that the demographic dividend is realized and that the vulnerable groups, including the elderly and disabled, are adequately supported.