2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Distributional_Effects_of_Fiscal_Consolidation_24页_989kb

Summary of "The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation"

Core Content

This paper investigates the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation across 17 OECD countries between 1978 and 2009. It finds that fiscal consolidation typically leads to increased income inequality, reduced wage income shares, and higher long-term unemployment. The analysis highlights that spending-based adjustments tend to have larger distributional impacts than tax-based ones.

Main Points

• Fiscal Consolidation and Inequality:

  • Fiscal consolidation episodes are associated with a significant and persistent increase in income inequality.
  • On average, the Gini coefficient for disposable income increases by 0.3 percentage points in the short term (2 years) and 1.5 percentage points in the medium term (8 years).
  • This increase is due to the contractionary effects of fiscal consolidation, which disproportionately impact lower-income groups.

• Wage Income Share:

  • Fiscal consolidation leads to a significant and long-lasting decline in the wage share of GDP, with an average reduction of 0.8 percentage points.
  • The effect is more pronounced on wage income than on profit and rent income, suggesting that consolidation disproportionately affects wage earners.

• Unemployment Effects:

  • Fiscal consolidation increases long-term unemployment by about 0.5 percentage points in the medium term.
  • It has no significant effect on short-term unemployment.
  • Long-term unemployment is associated with hysteresis, where prolonged unemployment reduces re-employment chances and leads to skill loss and detachment from the labor force.

• Spending vs. Tax-Based Consolidation:

  • Spending-based fiscal consolidation has larger distributional effects than tax-based consolidation.
  • The medium-term effect on inequality is 1 percentage point for spending-based measures and 0.6 percentage points for tax-based ones.
  • Spending cuts can directly reduce wage income and have indirect effects through increased unemployment.

• Methodology:

  • The paper uses local projections to estimate impulse response functions (IRFs) and assess the short- and medium-term impacts of fiscal consolidation.
  • The cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) is used as a measure of fiscal consolidation, but it is noted that this can introduce bias due to measurement errors and endogeneity.
  • Robustness checks are conducted using different specifications, including varying lags and control variables, and the results remain consistent.

• Policy Implications:

  • Governments should be mindful of the distributional consequences of fiscal consolidation.
  • Fiscal measures should be designed to minimize inequality and support growth.
  • A gradual pace of consolidation is recommended, especially in the context of weak economic recovery, to avoid exacerbating unemployment and inequality.
  • Fiscal plans that allow for flexibility while maintaining medium-term consolidation goals are more likely to succeed.

Key Information

• Sample: 17 OECD countries, 1978–2009.
• Fiscal Consolidation Magnitude: Typically between 0.1 and 5 percent of GDP, with an average of 1 percent of GDP.
• Data Sources:
  • Gini coefficient for disposable income from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database.
  • Wage and profit shares from the OECD Analytical Database.
  • Unemployment data from the OECD Analytical Database.
• Methodology:
  • The paper uses panel data and local projections to estimate the effects of fiscal consolidation.
  • The CAPB is used as a proxy for fiscal consolidation, but it is subject to measurement errors and endogeneity.
  • The paper provides robustness checks to ensure the validity of the results.
• Key Findings:
  • Fiscal consolidation increases inequality, reduces wage income shares, and increases long-term unemployment.
  • Spending-based consolidation has larger distributional effects than tax-based consolidation.
  • The effects of fiscal consolidation are more pronounced in the medium term.
  • Hysteresis is a concern, as long-term unemployment can lead to structural economic issues.
  • Social cohesion is threatened by long-term unemployment, as it leads to negative perceptions of democracy and increases support for authoritarian leaders.

Figures Summary

• Figure 1: Shows a cumulative increase in the Gini coefficient during fiscal consolidation episodes.
• Figure 2: Demonstrates a decline in the wage share following consolidation.
• Figure 3: Reports the estimated impact on the Gini coefficient using Equation (1).
• Figure 4: Includes robustness checks for the Gini coefficient, wage share, and the effect of spending vs. tax-based consolidation.
• Figure 5: Confirms that the medium-term effect on inequality is not sensitive to the number of lags used.
• Figure 6: Highlights that spending-based consolidation has a larger effect on inequality.
• Figure 7: Shows a decline in wage income share after fiscal consolidation.
• Figure 8: Demonstrates that tax-based consolidation has less impact on wage income than spending-based.
• Figure 9: Indicates that spending-based consolidation leads to a larger decline in wage income.
• Figure 10: Reveals that fiscal consolidation increases long-term unemployment significantly, while having no major effect on short-term unemployment.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that fiscal consolidation has significant distributional effects, particularly on income inequality and long-term unemployment. It emphasizes the importance of careful design of fiscal adjustment programs to balance economic stability with social equity. Spending-based consolidation is more harmful to income distribution than tax-based, and fiscal policies should be flexible and targeted to avoid long-term economic and social costs.