20160430-IRENA-The_True_Cost_of_Fossil_Fuels_Saving_on_the_Externalities_of_Air_Pollution_and_Climate_Change_12页_1mb

A Renewable Energy Roadmap: The True Cost of Fossil Fuels

Key Message: Doubling renewable energy by 2030 could save up to USD 4.2 trillion/year globally, significantly reducing air pollution and climate change impacts.

I. Background and Methodology

• Objective: Assess air pollution and climate externalities from fossil fuels and bioenergy and compare them with scaling renewable energy.
• Method: Analyzed global energy demand by 2030 using two scenarios:
  • Reference Case: Current and planned policies (business as usual)
  • REmap Doubling Scenario: Renewable share doubled (IRENA's roadmap)
• Methodology: Three-step process:
  1. Estimate emissions by sector and fuel.
  2. Calculate external costs globally, accounting for GDP differences.
  3. Apply country-specific damage costs.

II. Key Findings

A. Health Impacts & Mortality

• 8 million premature deaths annually from indoor/outdoor air pollution & transport.
• Doubling renewables could save 4 million lives/year (Halving energy-related CO₂ emissions).

B. Pollution & Emissions Reductions

• Air Pollutants:
  • PM₂.₅ reduced by 33%.
  • NOₓ, SO₂, NH₃, VOCs up to 80% lower.
• CO₂: Emissions cut by half (20-22Gt from 42Gt), with 2/3 achieved via renewables.

C. Economic Externalities (2030)

• Total Savings: USD 1.2-4.2 trillion/year, 4-15x costs of expanding renewables.
• Breakdown:
  • 50-66% avoidance of indoor air pollution costs (traditional bioenergy phased out).
  • 20-37% avoided CO₂ costs.
  • 25% reduction in air pollution externalities.

D. Sectoral Savings

• Power: Largest coal reduction (22%) → greatest overall savings.
• Transport: High urban pollution costs due to congestion & fuel mix.
• Buildings: Significant indoor air pollution reduction via modern bioenergy shift.
• Industry: Minimal emission reductions (mostly from energy efficiency).

E. Country-Level Impacts

• Leading Savings: China, India, Indonesia, USA → primarily from coal phase-out.
• Negative/Small Impact Countries: Russia (high gas use); bioenergy-reliant countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria).

III. Policy Implications

• Internalize Externalities: Market prices do not capture pollution costs; renewables become cheaper than fossil fuels when considering externalities.
• Need Regulations & Pricing:
  • Carbon pricing and local pollutant taxation.
  • Cleaner technology mandates (e.g., freight transport taxes).
• Develop National Plans:
  • National/urban air quality action plans.
  • Policy coordination (energy/ministry environment).

IV. Conclusion

• Current energy markets undervalue environmental costs; transitioning to renewables is economically viable & highly beneficial for human health.
• Policy action can accelerate deployment to achieve a USD 1.2-trillion+ annual savings by 2030.