2024-09-29-美联储-贷款价值约束的非线性效应（英）_23页_2mb

The paper examines the nonlinear effects of loan-to-value (LtV) borrowing constraints on financial crises and macroeconomic outcomes. Using a theoretical model with occasionally binding collateral constraints, it finds that the impact of shocks on consumption, asset prices, and the current account varies non-monotonically with the LtV ratio. When the LtV limit is low, tighter constraints reduce consumption drops during crises, but when it is high, tighter constraints amplify them. This pattern aligns with a U-shaped relationship observed empirically between financial development and consumption declines across countries, supporting the idea that nonlinear dynamics and multiple equilibria are key features. The model highlights risks associated with high leverage and emphasizes the need for careful calibration of LtV limits to balance economic growth and stability.