英文_高盛_追踪美国供应链拥堵情况_高盛供应链拥堵指数5月19日；周度指数略有下降_指数等级维持在_2_15页_551kb

Summary of Goldman Sachs Supply Chain Congestion Report (May 19, 2025)

• Congestion Scale Stability: The GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale remained at '2' for the week of May 19, 2025, indicating moderate congestion. The weekly index decreased slightly by 1% year-over-year, while rail intermodal traffic growth decelerated to approximately 4% YoY, suggesting a slow-down in supply chain pressures at the West Coast.

• Port Metrics: Container ship backlogs at the West Coast were unchanged at level '1', and the East Coast remained stable at '5'. Chassis dwell times improved, with average street dwell down for 20ft and 40/45ft containers compared to the previous week. Ocean shipping rates fell further, reaching -38% YoY from -32% the prior week, reflecting reduced costs but persistent congestion.

• Regional Analysis: West Coast congestion showed mixed rail performance, with Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe reporting slower growth and dwell times. East Coast congestion levels were largely unchanged, but inventory levels improved, potentially easing pressures. Rail intermodal trends indicate a deceleration from high volumes seen earlier in the year.

• Future Outlook: Analysts suggest congestion could ease further if current conditions persist, with the index potentially dropping to '1' by 2025. Beneficiaries include US rail operators (NSC, UNP, CSX) and intermodal marketing companies (SNDR, JBHT), as they are key players affected by supply chain disruptions. Congestion relief may be influenced by factors like labor availability, demand moderation, and avoidance of strikes.

• Overall Assessment: While significant improvements have occurred since 2023/2024, supply chain issues remain, with congestion levels below peak pandemic highs but still impacting logistics. Continued monitoring is advised due to risks like potential tariffs and demand surges.