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Summary of the Military Campaign Against Iraq

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. military campaign against Iraq, focusing on key factors that will determine its success or failure, the evolution of the campaign plan, the military buildup in the Persian Gulf, and the likely unfolding of the conflict. It emphasizes the strategic significance of the operation for the U.S., the Western alliance, the United Nations, and the Middle East.

Main Factors Determining Success or Failure

• Will the Iraqis fight?
  Iraqi military capabilities have significantly declined since 1991. The regular forces are less formidable, but the Special Republican Guard, responsible for Baghdad and WMD security, is expected to resist. The U.S. aims to create a divide between Saddam and his military/security forces.

• Will the regime collapse?
  There are differing views: some believe Saddam may be ousted by a coup or popular uprising, while others doubt his popularity due to his repressive rule. The U.S. strategy focuses on destabilizing the regime rather than solely on capturing Saddam.

• Will Iraq use WMD?
  There is concern that Iraq may attempt to use chemical or biological weapons, especially if the U.S. campaign is prolonged. The U.S. has emphasized deterrence through warnings and information campaigns targeting Iraqi military leaders.

• Will U.S. forces find WMD in Iraq?
  Finding WMD would validate the U.S. and U.K. stance that Iraq has not complied with U.N. Resolution 1441. Early discovery is crucial for justifying the campaign and undermining the argument for peaceful disarmament.

• Will Israel respond to Iraqi attacks?
  Israel is prepared to respond to chemical or biological attacks but has not been involved in the 1991 Gulf War. The U.S. has provided Israel with advanced warning systems and prioritized protecting Israeli interests during the campaign.

• Post-war stability in Iraq?
  A successful military campaign does not guarantee a stable post-Saddam Iraq. The risk of sectarian conflict among Shi'ites, Kurds, and Sunnis is a major concern. The U.S. also faces challenges with Turkey's refusal to allow military deployment in northern Iraq.

Evolution of the War Plan

• The initial war plan was leaked in early July 2002, sparking public debate.
• Three main options were considered:
  • "Afghan War Redux": Relied on air power and indigenous forces, but abandoned due to lessons from Afghanistan.
  • "Gulf War Lite": A more conservative approach with a 250,000-force invasion, criticized for being too slow and not innovative.
  • "Inside Out" or "Baghdad First": A more aggressive plan involving a rapid ground attack to decapitate the regime and prevent WMD use.
• By mid-September 2002, a consensus formed around a robust version of the "Inside Out" plan, with a total force of about 250,000 troops.

Military Buildup in the Persian Gulf

• The buildup was extensive and longer than previous plans, with over 200,000 U.S. troops and 25,000 British forces deployed by March 2003.
• Key military assets included:
  • 700+ combat aircraft (B-52, B-1, B-2 bombers)
  • Five carrier battle groups and a sixth carrier in the region
  • Special Operations Forces (SOF) and CIA operatives operating inside Iraq
• The U.S. also deployed Patriot anti-missile systems in Jordan and expanded use of Saudi military facilities.

Psychological Operations and Information Warfare

• A large-scale leaflet campaign was launched, dropping over 8 million leaflets by mid-February 2003.
• The U.S. conducted sophisticated psychological operations, including email attacks, phone calls to officials, and radio broadcasts, to weaken the regime’s grip on the population.
• The goal was to induce a "shock and awe" effect, causing the Iraqi regime to collapse quickly.

How the Campaign Will Unfold

• The campaign is expected to be air-centric and rapid, with a focus on:
  • Regime targets: Command and control centers, Republican Guard divisions, and WMD sites.
  • Air dominance: Attacking Iraqi air defenses and missile systems early to secure the skies.
  • Simultaneous air and ground operations: Combining speed and precision to disrupt Iraqi forces and prevent WMD use.
• The U.S. plans to quickly secure key areas and prevent "scorched earth" tactics by deploying ground forces early.
• The campaign will begin with a shock effect, using precision-guided munitions to overwhelm Iraqi defenses and create conditions for a swift ground advance.

Strategic Implications

• The campaign is seen as a defining moment for the U.S. and its global role.
• The outcome will have profound implications for the Middle East and international relations.
• The focus is not only on military success but also on post-war stability, as a failed occupation could lead to regional chaos.

Conclusion

The U.S. military campaign against Iraq is expected to be quick, decisive, and air-focused, with a significant buildup of forces in the region. Success will depend on the effectiveness of the campaign in preventing WMD use, avoiding prolonged conflict, and ensuring stability in post-war Iraq. The campaign's evolution reflects a shift from earlier, more cautious strategies to a bold, rapid approach aimed at minimizing casualties and achieving a swift, decisive outcome.