UNDP-双重危机对缅甸人福利的影响（英）-2021.11-31页_491kb

Summary of the Impact of the Twin Crises on Human Welfare in Myanmar

Core Content

This document outlines the severe impact of the twin crises—the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the military coup in February 2021—on poverty and human welfare in Myanmar. It highlights the significant increase in poverty rates, the exacerbation of existing vulnerabilities, and the long-term implications for human capital development.

Main Findings

Poverty Headcount

• Poverty headcount is projected to increase by 20 percentage points compared to 2017 levels, reaching 46.3% by early 2022.
• This means almost half of the population in Myanmar is expected to be living below the national poverty line.
• Extreme poverty is also expected to rise significantly, from 2% in 2017 to 13.9% by 2022, an increase of over 10 percentage points.
• Poverty gap (a measure of the depth of poverty) is projected to increase to 18.5%, reverting to levels not seen since 2005.

Regional and Demographic Impacts

• Urban poverty is expected to increase three-fold, from 11.3% to 37.2%.
• Chin and Rakhine are likely to remain the poorest states, with Chin's poverty rate expected to reach 71.5% and Rakhine's at 63.6%.
• Ayeyarwady will have the highest number of poor people, followed by Yangon and Sagaing.
• Child poverty is expected to rise significantly, with over half of the children in Myanmar projected to live in poverty by 2022.
• Female-headed households are more vulnerable to poverty, with higher likelihood of being below the poverty line.

Economic Impact

• The combined effect of the two crises is expected to lead to a 22.3% drop in income.
• The economic contraction is predicted to be as high as 18% annually, as per the World Bank.
• Social transfers and remittances are expected to decrease by 10%, with the total amount of resources needed to lift the new poor above the poverty line estimated at 4.5% of GDP, which is much higher than pre-COVID-19 levels (less than 1% of GDP).

Key Mechanisms of Impact on Human Capital

Nutrition

• Rising poverty is linked to malnutrition and stunting, especially in children under five.
• The prenatal period and the first 24 months after birth are critical for child development.
• Inadequate food intake, lack of a diversified diet, and skipping meals are key mechanisms through which poverty affects nutrition.
• People's Pulse Survey data shows a clear trend of reduced food consumption, especially in urban areas and among households affected by job loss or cessation of self-employment.

Education

• Poverty is associated with lower primary school enrolment rates in Myanmar, particularly among poor children.
• Middle and high school enrolment rates are even lower, with only half of poor children enrolled in middle school and about a fifth in high school.
• Income shocks are likely to lead to child withdrawal from school, as families seek to reduce costs.
• Education outcomes are expected to worsen due to increased poverty and reduced access to schooling.

Health

• Poverty is associated with poor health outcomes, including higher child and maternal mortality rates.
• Poor households have limited access to healthcare services and are more likely to face catastrophic healthcare expenditures.
• The poor are more vulnerable to disease and less likely to receive adequate treatment due to financial constraints.
• Healthcare access is also critical for child health outcomes, and the catastrophic healthcare expenditures are expected to worsen with the rising poverty levels.

Limitations and Conclusion

• The analysis is based on primary data collected in May-June 2021 and survey data from 2017 and 2020.
• The assumptions used in the analysis are based on available data and may not fully capture the complexity of the situation.
• The long-term implications of the rising poverty rates are significant, as they could lead to suboptimal human capital development and reduced economic growth.
• The combined effect of the two crises is likely to lock many households into permanent poverty, with negative impacts on education, health, and overall welfare.

Recommendations

• Increased social transfers will be necessary to address the rising poverty levels, especially in urban and conflict-affected areas.
• Targeted support for non-farm businesses and agricultural income could help mitigate the impact of the twin crises.
• Investment in education and health is critical to prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty and to build human capital for future growth.