2014年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_and_Shared_Prosperity_in_the_Caribbean_Region_16页_7mb

Summary of "Trade and Shared Prosperity in the Caribbean Region"

Core Content

This policy note is part of the Caribbean Knowledge Series by the World Bank and focuses on the role of trade in promoting employment and shared prosperity in the Caribbean region. It is based on the analysis from the report "The New Trade Environment and Shared Prosperity in the Caribbean" and aims to support the Caribbean Growth Forum (CGF), which brings together multiple stakeholders to address growth challenges in the region.

The report highlights that while the Caribbean region has experienced moderate economic growth and relatively high trade openness, unemployment and poverty remain persistent issues. The average unemployment rate in the region was around 10% between 2002 and 2009, and poverty reduction has been slow, particularly in lower-income countries like Haiti and Guyana.

Main Views

• Services Sector Dominance: The services sector, especially tourism, dominates employment in the Caribbean, accounting for over 60% of jobs in most countries. This is due to the region's natural amenities and the limited capacity to support large-scale manufacturing.

• Export Contribution to Employment: Exporting firms account for 34% of formal employment in the Caribbean, slightly higher than the 32% average for other developing countries. However, the contribution of exports to employment is not as significant as in other regions, especially in the context of new growth poles.

• Impact of Trade on Poverty: The report suggests that trade can contribute to poverty reduction, but the benefits are not evenly distributed. Poor households are more likely to be employed in export sectors, particularly in agriculture, which is less export-oriented than manufacturing. The earnings of poor workers in exporting sectors are not significantly higher than those in non-exporting sectors.

• Role of Trade During the Financial Crisis: Exporting firms generally experienced lower employment growth during the 2007–09 financial crisis compared to non-exporters, especially in the hotel and restaurant sector. However, the tourism sector showed resilience in some countries, such as Jamaica.

• Limited Income Gains from Trade: Despite employment in export sectors, the income gains for poor workers are limited. This is due to factors such as low human capital, part-time work, and the presence of many dependents in poor households.

• Policy Interventions for Poverty Reduction: The report proposes three key areas of policy intervention:

  • Trade Policy Reforms: Deepening regional integration and improving market access to new growth poles.
  • Trade Facilitation Measures: Reducing trade costs to make Caribbean exports more competitive.
  • Supply-Side Constraints: Enhancing productivity through innovation and reducing infrastructure gaps.

  A fourth scenario, focusing on reinforcing tourism specialization, is also considered.

Key Information

• Employment Trends: Labor markets in the Caribbean have improved over the past decade, but progress has not been sufficient to significantly reduce unemployment and poverty.

• Sectoral Differences: The manufacturing sector is more export-oriented and contributes more to formal employment than other sectors. However, the impact of trade on poverty is limited due to the nature of export industries, which often rely on capital-intensive methods.

• Data and Methodology: The analysis is based on the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) and household surveys. A CGE-micro simulation model was used to assess the effects of trade reforms on poverty and inequality.

• Country-Specific Insights:

  • Dominican Republic: Reforms in tourism and innovation have the largest impact on poverty reduction, with significant benefits for urban households.
  • Haiti: Improving access to innovation and reducing trade costs have the greatest impact on poverty reduction, particularly for extreme urban poverty.
  • Jamaica: Exporting firms employ a higher proportion of workers from poor households, but the weighted average shows that only a small portion of export employment comes from these households.

• Constraints on Exports: High trade costs, limited market access, and the small size of Caribbean economies hinder the ability of firms to scale and generate substantial employment and income gains.

Conclusion

The report concludes that addressing export constraints and promoting broader trade benefits are essential for achieving shared prosperity in the Caribbean. While trade plays a significant role in job creation and economic activity, the benefits for poor households are limited. Therefore, targeted policy reforms are needed to enhance the inclusiveness of trade and improve the livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations.