深度-GIZ-中国能源转型现状报告2021（英文）-2021.6-89页_11mb

China Energy Transition Status Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of China's energy transition progress in 2020 and outlines key challenges and policy directions for the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). It is a collaborative effort between the Sino-German Energy Transition Project, involving the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), German Energy Agency (dena), Agora Energiewende, and Chinese institutions such as the National Energy Administration (NEA), Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI), and China Southern Grid Energy Development Research Institute (CSG EDRI).

Main Points

1. Policy Overview

• In 2020, China marked a significant milestone with President Xi Jinping's announcement of carbon neutrality by 2060.
• The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) aimed to reduce energy intensity by 15% and carbon intensity by 18%, both of which were achieved in 2020.
• The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) sets new targets, including reducing energy intensity by 13.5%, reducing carbon intensity by 18%, and increasing the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 20%.

2. Energy Transition Statistics (2020)

• Wind and solar energy accounted for 11% of total electricity generation in 2020.
• Wind installations reached 72 GW, while solar installations reached 253.4 GW.
• The share of non-fossil energy in total installed capacity reached 43%, up from 39% in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
• Coal remained the dominant energy source, accounting for 57% of total energy consumption.
• The national carbon market is moving closer to operation, with 2021 as the first compliance year for over 3,000 entities in the power sector.

3. Key Challenges

• Electricity shortages: Southern provinces faced outages due to administrative targets and physical constraints, such as coal and hydro plant shutdowns.
• Coal plant approvals: Despite the push for clean energy, many provinces approved new coal plants, citing the need for energy security.
• Policy contradictions: The NEA was criticized by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) for prioritizing energy supply over environmental protection and for insufficient support for renewables.
• Market reforms: Although progress has been made, the power market remains dominated by mid-to-long-term bilateral contracts, limiting the role of spot and regional markets.
• Renewable integration: Despite approaching grid parity, renewables still face challenges in policy support and energy storage requirements.

4. Major Progress in 2020

• Wind and solar growth: Wind and solar installations exceeded expectations, with grid parity programs enabling more projects.
• Renewable curtailment: Wind curtailment dropped to 3%, and solar curtailment to 2%, indicating improved grid integration.
• Power market reforms: All pilot provinces completed trial trading periods, and more spot market pilots were announced.
• Offshore wind: China added 3 GW of offshore wind in 2020, with Jiangsu and Guangdong leading the charge.
• Rooftop solar: 10.1 GW of residential rooftop solar was newly installed, though ground-mounted installations still dominate.
• Electric vehicles (EVs): The EV market stabilized, with Chinese-made models like the Tesla Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV gaining traction. Public charging infrastructure grew by 54%.
• Hydrogen: Hydrogen has become a key focus, with major investments from oil and gas companies and provincial strategies, though most hydrogen is still derived from coal.

Key Topics of Research

The Sino-German Energy Transition Project focuses on the following areas:

• Distributed Energy
• Rural Energy Transition
• Power Market Reform
• Provincial Energy Transition
• Electric Vehicles
• Heating and Cooling
• Energy Efficiency
• Hydrogen
• Grid Planning (including flexibility and demand-side response)

Conclusion

China's energy transition is gaining momentum, with a clear shift towards renewable energy and low-carbon development. However, challenges remain, particularly in balancing energy security with environmental goals and in implementing effective market mechanisms. The 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide a more structured framework for the energy transition, but its success will depend on overcoming policy contradictions and ensuring greater societal acceptance of the energy transition concept.