2017年-世界发展银行全球_Uganda_Economic_Update_July_2017___Infrastructure_Finance_Deficit_64页_4mb

Uganda Economic Update - 9th Edition, July 2017

Core Content

The 9th edition of the Uganda Economic Update, published in July 2017, provides an analysis of the state of Uganda's economy and explores the potential of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to address the country's infrastructure finance deficit.

Main Points

Economic Activity

• Subdued Growth: Economic activity in FY 2016/17 was subdued, with an annualized growth rate of 2.5% in the first nine months, significantly below the long-term average of 7%.
• Impact of Shocks: The decline in growth was attributed to internal and external shocks, including the prolonged drought, civil unrest in South Sudan, and instability in Uganda's banking system.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • Agriculture: Recorded a negative growth rate of -3.0% due to drought.
  • Services: Grew by 4.2%, continuing to be the main growth driver.
  • Industry: Grew at an annualized rate of 2.7%, primarily due to increased manufacturing and recovery in retail and trading sectors.
• Project Execution: The slow execution of government projects continued to constrain sector performance, with only 34% of the development budget being absorbed during the period.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation: The annualized inflation rate stood at 5.6% by the end of the first eleven months of FY 2016/17, remaining within target levels despite food price increases.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank eased monetary policy to stimulate the economy, but the impact was limited due to commercial banks not significantly lowering lending rates and the limited financial depth of Uganda.

Fiscal Policy

• Revenue Shortfall: Uganda recorded a 2.5% shortfall in revenue collections relative to the targeted level in FY 2016/17.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit was estimated at 3.5% of GDP, well below the targeted 6.5%.
• External Borrowing: About 77% of the deficit was expected to be funded through external borrowing.

External Position

• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit was 5.1% of GDP by the end of 2016, down from 7.4% in the previous year.
• Balance of Payments: The overall balance of payments deficit reached US $318.6 million by the end of 2016, reversing a previous surplus.
• Improvement in Second Half: During the second half of FY 2016/17, Uganda's external position improved, allowing the Bank of Uganda to rebuild foreign exchange reserves.

Infrastructure Finance Challenge

• Infrastructure Deficit: Uganda faces a significant infrastructure finance gap, estimated at US$ 0.4 million annually.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): PPPs are seen as a potential solution to bridge this gap, as they can mobilize private financing and improve efficiency in infrastructure investments.
• Challenges with PPPs: Uganda's experience with PPPs has been mixed, highlighting the need for improvements in frameworks and processes.
• Conditions for Success: To maximize the benefits of PPPs, the government must build strong institutions, implement robust project identification and management processes, and ensure that these partnerships contribute to the intended economic growth and development objectives.

Risks and Constraints

• Fiscal Management Risks: Poor revenue collection, over-spending in the recurrent budget, and under-execution of the development budget are critical risks.
• External Risks: Global economic uncertainties, regional instability, and the impact of bad weather threaten export performance and foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Private Investment Constraints: Private investment remains constrained due to low business confidence, regional instability, and high cost of credit.

Future Outlook

• Growth Forecast: Economic growth is expected to rise to 5.2% in FY 2017/18 and 6.0% in FY 2018/19, driven by improved weather, ongoing banking system reforms, and better execution of public investment projects.
• Poverty Reduction: Accelerated growth is expected to reduce the poverty rate by an estimated 0.9 percentage points annually from 2016 to 2019, though regional disparities may widen.
• FDI in Extractives: FDI in the extractives sector is expected to increase following the issuance of long-awaited exploration agreements and the development of oil-related infrastructure.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for the government to focus on improving fiscal management, enhancing the framework for PPPs, and addressing the constraints on private investment to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in Uganda.