2009年-世界发展银行全球_Strategy_and_Business_Plan_for_the_Pakistan_Infrastructure_Project_Financing_Facility___Infrastructure_Financing_Market_Update_20页_756kb

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Summary of the Pakistan Infrastructure Project Financing Facility (IPFF) Strategy and Business Plan

1. Introduction

This document provides an update on the Pakistan infrastructure financing market, building on the November 2007 Market Assessment Report. It outlines the current state of the market, the impact of the global financial crisis, and the evolving enabling environment for public-private partnerships (PPPs). The report is part of the strategy and business plan for the Pakistan Infrastructure Project Financing Facility (IPFF), which aims to support infrastructure development through private financing.

2. Background on Pakistan Economy

2.1. Economic Growth

Despite external financial shocks and internal political instability, Pakistan's economic growth has remained relatively stable compared to OECD countries.
GDP growth averaged 6.6% per annum over the last six years.
In 2007-08, GDP growth was 5.8%, slightly below the previous year's 6.8%.
The services sector, particularly the financial sector, has been the strongest contributor to GDP growth.
Real per capita income has grown at an average of 4.5% per annum since 2000, reaching $1,085 in 2007-08.
Consumer spending has increased due to higher incomes, contributing to inflationary pressures.

2.2. Private and Public Investments

Private investment in infrastructure has increased significantly since 2003, with a 9.7% growth in 2007-08.
Public investment has also grown, with a 15.7% annual increase over the past four years.
The private sector now accounts for more than 75% of total domestic fixed investment.
The government remains the main investor in infrastructure, despite private sector growth.
PPI investments have increased in sectors like power and transport, with a notable rise in energy investments in 2007.
Telecoms saw $11 bn in PPI investment since 2004.

3. Impact of Global Credit Crunch and Economic Downturn

The global financial crisis and economic downturn have affected Pakistan, particularly through rising commodity prices and sharp increases in fiscal deficits.
Oil prices surged, leading to a 6.9% share of oil imports in GDP and a sharp increase in oil subsidies.
Inflation rose sharply, with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dropping to 19.9% in November 2008 from 35.7% in August 2008.
The IMF provided a $7.6 bn support package in November 2008, which included:
- 3.06 bn disbursed in November 2008.
- A 100 basis points reduction in the discount rate.
- Fiscal deficit reduced to 1% in Q1 2009 from 1.5% a year ago.
The IMF program aimed to stabilize the economy and reduce fiscal borrowing to 4.3% of GDP by 2009, but this remains a challenge.
The foreign exchange market showed signs of stabilization, with the PKR depreciation against USD slowing.
Liquidity constraints remain due to the Advances to Deposits ratio of banks hovering around 76-78%.
The currency is expected to weaken at 4-6% per annum, influenced by the IMF's inflation differential policy.

4. Enabling Environment for PSP in Infrastructure

4.1. Draft PPP Policy (April 2009)

The government released a new draft PPP policy to expand private participation in infrastructure.
Key objectives include:
- Promoting inclusive economic and social development.
- Leveraging private financing for infrastructure.
- Creating an enabling environment for private investment.
- Protecting stakeholder interests.
- Establishing efficient and transparent institutional arrangements.
- Developing risk-sharing mechanisms.
The scope includes transport, logistics, energy, tourism, health, water and sanitation, and industrial projects.
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the coordinating body for PPPs, with the IPDF playing a major role in advising and supporting PPP institutions.
Risk management is emphasized, with a Risk Management Unit in the MoF to handle government liabilities from PPP contracts.
Concession agreements may include mechanisms for clawing back returns if projects exceed expectations, though no details are provided.

4.2. SBP Prudential Guidelines

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) relaxed prudential regulations to improve liquidity and investment freedom.
Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) was reduced by 1% in November 2008.
Minimum paid-up capital requirements for commercial banks were eased, as shown in Table 4.1.
These changes aim to support banking sector stability and PPP project financing.

5. Update on Demand for Infrastructure Finance

5.1. Projects Closed

Around 15 infrastructure projects, mainly IPP projects, were closed in 2007 and 2008.
7 IPPs are expected to come online in 2009, with 4 becoming commercially operational in 2010.
Table 5.1 provides the breakdown of closed projects by type and value.

5.2. Project Pipeline

The IPDF pipeline includes 18 projects with a total value of $3.2 bn.
These projects span various sectors, including commerce, health, highways, ports, transport, and water and sanitation.
The average size of projects varies, with highways being the largest at $104 m.
The IPDF is in discussion with the Planning Commission and Ministries to identify more projects, especially those in the conceptual or pre-feasibility stage.
The pipeline does not provide details on the stage of development for each project.

6. Update on the Supply of Infrastructure Finance

The global financial crisis had limited impact on Pakistan's infrastructure finance market due to minimal exposure to mortgage derivatives.
Credit spreads and tenors for PKR-based infrastructure financing remain in the 8-14 years range, with base rate plus 200-300 basis points.
Capital markets were affected by the global downturn, with a significant decline in inward capital flows.
Equity and bond markets have not seen substantial growth, with NBFCs and insurance sectors still underdeveloped.
Local banks continue to be the primary source of infrastructure financing, though they face sector concentration constraints, especially in the IPP sector.
Middle Eastern investors have traditionally been active, but their participation has declined due to the global recession.
Private equity is expected to flow in, especially in the power and food sectors.

7. Key Conclusions

The adverse economic environment and global debt market issues have reduced the number of infrastructure projects reaching financial close since mid-2008.
Budgetary constraints may pose a non-trivial risk to the government's proposed infrastructure investment plans.
The private sector remains a key player, but its capacity to finance is limited by market depth, risk-return mismatches, and lack of exit mechanisms.
IMF support has helped stabilize macroeconomic conditions, and cautious optimism is warranted for the medium term.
The infrastructure financing gap is now estimated at $3.2 - 3.5 bn, up from $2.5 - 2.5 bn in 2007.
Government financing is expected to remain at $2.5 - 3 bn per year.
Private financing capacity is estimated at $1 - 1.3 bn per year, leading to the financing gap.
The IPFF is expected to play a critical role in bridging the gap through project finance and viability gap funding.

Annexes Overview

Annex 1: Details on projects closed since December 2006.
Annex 2: IPDF project pipeline (18 projects totaling $3.2 bn).
Annex 3: PPP process diagram outlining the approval and implementation stages.

This summary highlights the economic context, PPP policy developments, market dynamics, and key financial indicators related to the Pakistan Infrastructure Project Financing Facility (IPFF).

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