2013年-世界发展银行全球_Natural_Disasters_in_MENA___A_Regional_Overview_4页_851kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Natural Disasters in the Region

Core Content

The document provides a regional overview of natural disasters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and highlights the challenges and opportunities for disaster risk management (DRM) in the area. It discusses the increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters, the role of urbanization and climate change, and the need for comprehensive DRM strategies.

Main Points

• Rising Natural Disasters: Natural disasters in MENA have almost tripled since the 1980s, with floods being the most recurring hazard. The economic losses from disasters have also increased significantly.
• Impact of Urbanization: Rapid urbanization in the region has heightened vulnerability to natural disasters. Over 60 million people live in coastal areas, and informal settlements increase exposure to flood risks.
• Climate Change Effects: The region is projected to be the second most affected by climate change, with rising sea levels threatening agricultural land and population. By 2050, a 50% gap in renewable water supply is expected, which will have economic implications.
• Policy and Institutional Response: MENA governments have increasingly recognized the need for DRM, leading to the establishment of DRM-specific institutions and programs. The Islamic Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management was adopted in 2010.
• Decentralization Trends: Although the region remains highly centralized, some countries like Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, and Yemen are beginning to decentralize DRM activities, empowering local communities to manage their own risks.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: In 2008, floods in Yemen cost US$1.6 billion, equivalent to 6% of the country's GDP. In Djibouti, droughts caused an annual economic contraction of 3.9% of GDP from 2008 to 2012.
• Floods in Jeddah: Between 2009 and 2011, floods in Jeddah resulted in losses of US$800 million, with reconstruction and compensation costs reaching US$1.36 billion.
• Disaster Trends: From 1970 to 2010, 81% of disaster events in MENA were concentrated in six countries: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and Yemen.
• DRM Framework: The World Bank has proposed a five-pillar DRM framework to guide governments and other stakeholders in reducing disaster risks. This includes institutional strengthening, risk identification, risk reduction, risk financing, and response, recovery, and reconstruction.

Proposed Way Forward

The framework outlines immediate priorities across five pillars:

Pillar I - Institutional Strengthening & Capacity Building

• Support the development of a regional "Center of Excellence" for DRM.
• Promote awareness and institutional ownership of DRM across line ministries.
• Develop tools to integrate DRM into development planning.
• Enforce and monitor policies for DRM, land use, and natural resource management.
• Enhance synergies between land-use planning, climate change adaptation (CCA), and DRM.
• Strengthen regional and national institutions in risk assessment.

Pillar II - Risk Identification

• Establish dedicated systems for hazard and risk assessments.
• Conduct risk assessments for critical urban areas.

Pillar III - Risk Reduction

• Promote well-designed water management systems.
• Strengthen capacity for disaster risk mitigation programs.
• Develop cost-benefit analyses for structural mitigation investments.
• Standardize disaster risk calculations in public investment.
• Support cost-effective flood protection measures.

Pillar IV - Risk Financing and Transfer

• Enhance government financial response capacity while maintaining fiscal balance.
• Integrate natural disaster risks into broader financial risk management strategies.
• Explore market-based catastrophe risk insurance solutions.
• Promote regional cooperation on disaster risk financing instruments (DRFI).

Pillar V - Response, Recovery, and Reconstruction

• Conduct a comprehensive review of emergency response in MENA.
• Develop regional capacities for rapid Post Disaster National Assessments (PDNAs).
• Mainstream DRM into reconstruction using best practice case studies.
• Continue building PDNA capacity and develop disaster damage assessment methodologies.
• Support community-level capacity building, as communities are often the first responders in disasters.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the urgent need for integrated and comprehensive DRM strategies in the MENA region. It calls for collaborative efforts, institutional capacity building, and the incorporation of DRM into development planning to mitigate the growing risks posed by natural disasters and climate change.