20240408-招银国际-海尔智家-06690.HK-Resilient_FY24E_guidance_and_decent_dividend_8页_1mb

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) Investment Report Summary

Key Highlights:

1. Rating and Target Price:

   • CMB maintains a BUY recommendation for Haier Smart Home (HKG:6690), with an upgraded Target Price (TP) to HK$31.24 (Previous: HK$30.91), reflecting a 21.8% upside from the current price of HK$25.65.

2. Financial Performance:

   • FY23 Results: Revenue increased 7% YoY to RMB262 billion, Net Profit rose 14% YoY to RMB16.7 billion, in line with market expectations. Dividend per share (DPS) surged 42% YoY to RMB8.04, implying a payout ratio of ~45%, up significantly from 36% in 2022.
   • Q4 2023: Sales and net profit grew 7% and 13% YoY, respectively, showing resilience despite a challenging macro environment.
   • FY24E Guidance: Management reaffirmed sales and net profit growth targets for 2024, though EBIT margin is slightly revised downward (from 8.2% to 8.0% for FY24E). Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at HKD2.03 (FY24E).

3. Growth Drivers (2024E):

   • Casarte Brand: Sales growth remains steady (10%-15%), aided by a stronger presence in high-end malls and product diversification.
   • Air Conditioner Business: Ramp-up expected due to operational efficiencies and increased in-house component production.
   • EU Market Reforms & R&D: CEO leadership and new product launches are set to drive the medium-term goal of RMB40 billion in sales.
   • ANZ Market: Demand rebound supported by innovative product launches.
   • High-End Segment: Steady performance, notably in the US market.

4. Margin Improvement:

   • Gross margin expected to reach 31.2%-31.6% for FY24E, driven by centralized raw material sourcing, supply chain cost negotiations, automation, and premiumization of products in the U.S. market.
   • Net profit margin projected to improve to 7.4% in FY24E, supported by marketing optimizations and manpower rationalization in the EU.

5. Valuation & Investment Thesis:

   • The stock is trading at 12x FY24E P/E, well below a 5-year average of 15x. CMBIGM’s TP of HK$31.24 implies a 14x FY24E P/E, reflecting a buy recommendation based on strong internal growth drivers, reforms, and solid dividend yield (currently 2.4%, expected to rise to 5.3% by 2026E).

Bottom Line:
Despite macro headwinds, the company’s operational resilience and proactive reforms (EU market, supply chain efficiency, product premiumization) position it well for steady FY24E performance. Higher dividend payouts and an attractive valuation further support the BUY rating.