牛津经济研究院-东南亚农业食品部门的经济影响-泰国（英）-2021.6-28页_2mb

AGRI-FOOD SECTOR IN THAILAND: SUMMARY

Core Content

The agri-food sector is a critical component of Thailand's economy, contributing significantly to GDP, employment, and tax revenues. It is a resilient industry that has maintained stability in food supply and pricing despite the economic challenges posed by the pandemic.

Main Points

• Economic Contribution:
  In 2019, the agri-food sector contributed USD 130.4 billion to Thailand's GDP, representing 25% of the total economy.

  • Agricultural Production: Contributed USD 53.8 billion or 41% of the total agri-food GDP contribution.
  • F&B Manufacturing: Contributed USD 41.5 billion or 32% of the total agri-food GDP contribution.
  • F&B Distribution: Contributed USD 35.0 billion or 27% of the total agri-food GDP contribution.

• Employment Footprint:
  The sector supported 17.9 million jobs in 2019, which is 48% of the total employment in the country.

  • Agricultural Production: Supported 12.3 million jobs.
  • F&B Manufacturing: Supported 2.1 million jobs.
  • F&B Distribution: Supported 3.6 million jobs, with the largest share in catering (1.7 million).

• Tax Revenue:
  The agri-food sector generated USD 22.6 billion in tax revenues in 2019.

• Trade Surplus:
  Thailand is a net exporter of agri-food products, with USD 32.1 billion in exports and USD 11.1 billion in imports in 2019, resulting in a USD 21.0 billion trade surplus.

  • Processed Food and Beverages: Dominated the trade surplus, contributing USD 19.4 billion.
  • Unprocessed Agricultural Products: Also contributed to the trade surplus, albeit to a lesser extent.

• Impact of the Pandemic:
  The agri-food sector's GDP contribution decreased by USD 7.3 billion in 2020 compared to 2019, a 6% decline.

  • The contraction was most pronounced in accommodation and catering, which saw a USD 5.1 billion reduction in GDP contribution, or 33%.
  • Employment also declined by 700,000 (or 8%) in 2020.

Key Information

Sector Structure

The agri-food sector in Thailand is divided into three main components:

• Agricultural Production: Largest contributor to GDP and employment.
• F&B Manufacturing: Second-largest contributor, with a significant role in the supply chain.
• F&B Distribution: Third-largest contributor, with a strong presence in retail and catering.

Economic Impact Channels

The economic impact of the agri-food sector is measured through three channels:

1. Direct Impact: Activities within the sector itself.
2. Indirect Impact: Spending by the sector's supply chain.
3. Induced Impact: Spending by workers and suppliers in the sector.

Fiscal Policy Risks

• Excise Taxes: Potential new excise taxes on sugar, salt, and plastics could harm the agri-food sector by:
  • Disproportionately affecting small businesses.
  • Causing unforeseen damage to local industry.
  • Placing an unfair burden on low-income households.
  • Failing to generate sufficient fiscal revenues.
• Fiscal Adjustments: Governments may target the low sales tax rate as a source of revenue, which could negatively impact demand and economic recovery.

Outlook

• Slow Recovery: The sector faces a mixed outlook, with tourism being a key driver of demand and expected to recover slowly.
• Productivity Gains: Productivity improvements have led to GDP growth but employment decline across the agri-food value chain.
• Investment and Policy: Sustained growth will require supportive policies and large-scale investments in technology and skills.

Historical Growth

• Between 2015 and 2019, the agri-food sector experienced real-term growth of 10%, with:
  • Agricultural Production growing by 3% (USD 1.7 billion increase).
  • F&B Manufacturing growing by 6% (USD 2.4 billion increase).
  • F&B Distribution growing by 23% (USD 7.3 billion increase).

Challenges

• Supply and Demand: The sector faces challenges related to supply chain disruptions and changing consumer demand.
• Pandemic Effects: The tourism sector has had a major impact on the agri-food industry, especially in catering and accommodation.

Conclusion

The agri-food sector is central to Thailand's economic development, providing employment, contributing to GDP, and generating substantial tax revenues. While it has shown resilience during the pandemic, its recovery is expected to be slow due to the impact on tourism. Fiscal policy risks, particularly the introduction of poorly designed excise taxes, could further challenge the sector's performance. Addressing these issues will require careful policy planning and investment to ensure long-term growth and stability.