2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Belarus_Selected_Issues_9页_524kb

Summary of De-dollarization in the Republic of Belarus

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the phenomenon of financial dollarization in Belarus, highlighting its causes, implications, and the policy measures taken to reduce it. It also discusses the challenges that remain and draws on the experience of Peru as a case study of successful de-dollarization.

Main Points

Financial Dollarization in Belarus

• High Level of Dollarization: Belarus has a high level of financial dollarization, particularly in deposits and loans. FX deposits account for about 70% of total deposits, and FX lending is close to 60%.
• Historical Drivers: The high dollarization is largely due to past economic crises, hyperinflation, and depreciation episodes that eroded confidence in the local currency.
• Recent Trends: Dollarization has been decreasing in recent years, driven by more sustainable macroeconomic policies and better prudential measures. However, it remains higher than pre-crisis levels.

Implications of Dollarization

• Systemic Risk: High dollarization is a systemic risk, increasing liquidity and credit risks, and reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy.
• Seigniorage Losses: The high level of dollarization has led to a loss of seigniorage revenues of 2-3% per year on average.
• Monetary Transmission: The presence of a high share of FX holdings weakens the interest rate channel of monetary transmission.

De-dollarization Policies

• Macro Policies: Belarus has improved macroeconomic stability, including fiscal prudence, inflation targeting, and a more rules-based monetary policy framework.
• Prudential Measures: Differentiated reserve requirements, a ban on household FX borrowing, and higher provisioning for FX loans have been introduced.
• FX Market Liberalization: Steps have been taken to liberalize the FX market, such as eliminating the FX surrender requirement and easing registration procedures.
• Capital Market Development: Efforts are being made to develop local capital markets, including issuing longer-dated government bonds in rubles.

Remaining Challenges

• Inflation Targeting: The transition to inflation targeting is not yet complete, and price stability remains a joint mandate, weakening policy credibility.
• Regulated Prices: A significant portion of CPI is still regulated, which can lead to price freezes and distort market signals.
• Interest Rate Caps: Interest rate caps on household deposits limit the attractiveness of local currency savings and hinder de-dollarization.
• SOE FX Borrowing: There is a moral hazard associated with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) borrowing in FX, as they may expect government bailouts.
• Need for a National Strategy: A comprehensive and publicly communicated de-dollarization strategy is lacking, which is essential for signaling commitment and guiding policy coherence.

Key Recommendations

• Develop a public de-dollarization strategy to anchor expectations and signal commitment.
• Continue improving macroeconomic policies to restore confidence in the local currency.
• Deepen domestic capital markets to provide a benchmark yield curve and encourage local currency investments.
• Encourage long-term savings in local currency through institutional mechanisms such as pension funds.
• Implement market-based and market-friendly measures to avoid the adverse effects of heavy-handed administrative policies.

Box: Peru – A Case of Successful De-dollarization

• Background: High dollarization in Peru was a legacy of hyperinflation in the late 1980s.
• Measures: A combination of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies led to a significant reduction in FX lending.
• Outcomes: FX lending fell from 80% to 30% between 2003 and 2016.
• Instruments:
  • Prudential: Higher capital requirements for FX loans.
  • Monetary: Cyclical Required Reserve Ratios and remuneration for FX vs. local currency.
  • Quantitative: "De-dollarization repos."
  • Regulatory: Stricter limits on net open FX positions and FX derivatives.

Conclusion

Belarus has made progress in reducing financial dollarization, but significant challenges remain. A coordinated, long-term strategy is necessary to ensure sustainable de-dollarization, supported by sound macroeconomic and prudential policies, and the development of local capital markets. The experience of Peru offers valuable lessons in this regard.