2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Belarus_Financial_System_Stability_Assessment_55页_1mb

Financial System Stability Assessment of the Republic of Belarus (September 2016)

Core Content

This report is a Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the Republic of Belarus, based on data available up to July 25, 2016. The assessment highlights the challenges and risks facing the state-dominated financial sector, including structural issues, external vulnerabilities, credit and liquidity risks, and the need for improved oversight and regulatory frameworks.

Main Views

1. State Dominance and Structural Challenges

• The financial system is heavily influenced by the state, with state-owned banks and the Development Bank (DB) playing a central role.
• Structural issues include high government involvement in the banking and corporate sectors, lack of hard budget constraints for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and significant dollarization.
• Belarus is in a recession, facing negative spillovers from its main trade and financial partner, Russia.
• International reserves are low, offering limited buffer against external shocks. The exchange rate depreciated sharply by nearly 40% against the U.S. dollar in 2015.

2. Credit and Liquidity Risks

• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have risen sharply, from 7% of total loans in December 2015 to over 12% in April 2016.
• Only about 40% of NPLs are provisioned, indicating inadequate risk management.
• Banks face significant credit risk, especially from SOEs, which account for 29% of banking assets and 55% of all claims on the corporate sector.
• Foreign currency liquidity risk is high due to the large share of foreign currency deposits and loans, and limited access to foreign currency liquidity.

3. Systemic Risks and Contagion

• The DB, created in 2011 to centralize state-directed lending, has become a major player in the financial system.
• Cross-border linkages, especially with Russia, increase the risk of contagion.
• The small, state-dominated insurance sector is also vulnerable to spillovers from the banking system.

4. Financial Oversight and Supervision

• The state's dominance in the financial sector complicates the transition to independent, risk-based supervision.
• Banking and insurance oversight is constrained by lack of operational independence.
• The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) has limited tools to manage liquidity and systemic risks, with most liquidity facilities and reserve requirements in local currency.

5. Recommendations

• A comprehensive NPL resolution strategy is needed, possibly involving a single entity with powers for debt restructuring and privatization.
• The DB should be consolidated as the main agent of directed lending, with a focus on viable projects not served by commercial banks.
• Macroprudential policies should be introduced to reduce foreign currency liquidity risk, including increasing reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits and stress testing.
• The NBRB should be designated as a resolution authority and given more tools to manage financial crises.
• The Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) should be allowed to provide funding for purchase and assumption transactions.
• The insurance sector should be strengthened with risk-based supervision and improved governance.
• The legal framework for financial market infrastructure should be enhanced to support better risk management.

Key Information

Financial Sector Overview

• The financial system is dominated by commercial banks (85% of total assets), the DB (7%), the insurance sector (3%), and leasing/microcredit companies (5%).
• Over 65% of total assets are state-owned, while foreign banks account for 33% and domestic private banks for 2%.
• Banks operate with government-subsidized interest rates, creating an uneven playing field with private banks.

Credit and Liquidity Risks

• NPLs have risen significantly, from 7% in December 2015 to 12% in April 2016.
• Provisioning remains low, with only about 40% of NPLs provisioned.
• Banks are heavily exposed to foreign currency, with 70% of deposits and 60% of loans in foreign currency.
• The DB has grown rapidly to become the fourth-largest financial institution, with significant exposure to SOEs and NPLs.

External Vulnerabilities

• Belarus faces significant external spillovers from Russia, its main trade and financial partner.
• The majority of external liabilities are to Russian banks, with a large portion of funding coming from parent banks.
• Cross-border exposure is mostly in U.S. dollars due to correspondent accounts in the U.S., followed by euros in Germany.

Policy Recommendations

• Immediate (I): Conduct asset quality reviews (AQR) for banks with discrepancies in IFRS and prudential provisions; apply Pillar 2 measures to specific banks; designate NBRB as a resolution authority; establish an ELA framework.
• Near-Term (NT): Conduct bottom-up stress tests; increase reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits; limit DB's role in directed lending; improve risk assessment for foreign currency liquidity; introduce risk-sensitive capital regimes for insurance.
• Medium-Term (MT): Amend NBRB statute to enhance independence; improve bankruptcy law to support secured creditors; establish mechanisms for out-of-court debt restructuring; limit deposit insurance coverage and shorten payout periods.

Conclusion

The financial system of Belarus is under significant pressure due to structural weaknesses, external vulnerabilities, and high levels of nonperforming loans. The state's involvement in the sector has led to a lack of market discipline and operational independence. To enhance financial stability, the report recommends strengthening prudential supervision, improving liquidity management, and transitioning to a more independent and risk-based financial oversight framework. These measures are essential to address the growing systemic risks and ensure the resilience of the financial system in the face of economic shocks.