2016年-ECB欧洲央行_Oil_prices_and_euro_area_consumer_energy_prices_3页_509kb

Box 6: Oil Prices and Euro Area Consumer Energy Prices Summary

Core Content

This document examines the relationship between oil prices and euro area consumer energy prices, focusing on how changes in oil prices affect headline HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) inflation. It highlights that while oil prices significantly influence energy prices, the relationship is not strictly one-to-one across all energy components. The analysis is broken down into three main energy sub-components: liquid fuels (for transport and heating), gas, and electricity.

Main Energy Components and Their Link to Oil Prices

• Liquid Fuels (Transport & Heating):

  • The most direct and automatic link with oil prices.
  • Crude oil price changes are passed through to consumer prices within a few weeks.
  • Refining and distribution costs and margins have a minor buffering effect in the short term but are less influential over longer periods.
  • Indirect taxes (VAT) are levied as a percentage of the final price, including excise taxes, and thus co-move with oil prices.
  • The decline in euro area consumer liquid fuel prices by about 25% since July 2014 reflects the nearly complete pass-through of the 60% drop in crude oil prices.

• Gas:

  • Consumer gas prices are largely driven by wholesale gas prices, which are not strictly linked to oil prices.
  • In the past, gas prices were linked to oil prices with a lag of 3–6 months, but this link has weakened over time.
  • The share of oil-linked gas pricing decreased from 80% to 30% between 2005 and 2014.
  • Despite this de-linking, recent gas price declines have coincided with oil price drops, but this is more due to supply-demand balance than an automatic relationship.
  • A short lag of 3–6 months characterizes the pass-through from wholesale to consumer gas prices.
  • Since July 2014, euro area wholesale gas prices have fallen by 33%, while consumer gas prices have dropped by about 5%.

• Electricity:

  • Consumer electricity prices have little direct linkage to oil prices.
  • Electricity is produced through various methods, including fossil fuels (gas, coal/lignite), renewables (hydro, solar, wind), and nuclear fission.
  • Oil is rarely used for electricity generation, so the correlation with oil prices is weaker and with a longer lag.
  • In the euro area, energy and supply costs account for 40% of consumer electricity prices, network costs for 25%, and taxes and levies for 33%.
  • Since July 2014, consumer electricity prices have increased by about 1% on average, but have decreased marginally in annual terms by early 2016.

Key Insights

• The major negative impact on headline HICP inflation is due to oil price declines, especially through liquid fuel prices.
• The pass-through mechanism from oil to energy prices varies in intensity and timing across different components.
• Indirect taxes (VAT) and wholesale price trends play a crucial role in shaping consumer energy prices.
• The link between oil and gas prices has weakened over time, with spot markets reducing reliance on long-term oil-linked contracts.
• Electricity prices are influenced more by supply-side factors and diverse generation methods than by oil prices.

Conclusion

The current negative inflationary pressure in the euro area's consumer energy prices is primarily driven by oil price declines, especially in liquid fuels. While gas prices have also fallen in line with oil prices, the relationship is less direct and more influenced by market dynamics. Electricity prices, on the other hand, show little direct correlation with oil prices. The analysis suggests that consumer energy prices are likely to continue exerting negative inflationary pressure in 2016, with electricity prices expected to remain subdued.