2024-06-10-世界银行-冈比亚经济更新_2024年春季_启动包容性和可持续增长（英）_72页_2mb

Jumpstarting Inclusive and Sustained Growth: The Gambia Economic Update - Spring 2024 Summary

Executive Summary

1. Diagnosis: The Gambia's economy is fragile due to high inflation (averaging 16.9% in 2023), a widening trade deficit, and persistent fiscal and external vulnerabilities. Growth (5.3% in 2023) is driven by public and private investment but hampered by limited private sector development and structural constraints.
2. Poverty and Inequality: Poverty increased slightly from 2022-2023 due to high inflation, disproportionately affecting vulnerable households. Inequality rose, and access to essential services remains uneven, particularly in rural areas.
3. Structural Challenges: The economy remains overly dependent on low-value-added tourism and informal employment (79.4% of workers). Productivity growth has stagnated over the long term, and infrastructure gaps (e.g., energy, transportation, digital) constrain growth potential.
4. Macroeconomic Conditions: High inflation reflects imported price shocks, currency depreciation, and tight monetary policy. Public debt, though sustainable, is vulnerable to external risks, especially the end of debt deferrals and potential cost increases in servicing external obligations.

Macroeconomic Outlook

1. Medium-Term Projections: Growth is expected to strengthen to 5.6% in 2024-2026, supported by implementation of the Recovery-Focused National Development Plan (RF-NDP) and sectors. Inflation will gradually decline toward the central bank’s target, but will remain elevated in 2024 due to global commodity prices and weak global demand.
2. Fiscal and External Risks: The fiscal deficit will narrow, and debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to decline by 2025-2026. However, resuming external debt repayments in 2024 and continued external vulnerabilities threaten fiscal sustainability and growth prospects.

Growth Model and Key Constraints

1. Weak Foundation for Structural Transformation: Decades of low growth are driven by inadequate productivity in key sectors (especially agriculture), weak governance, poor infrastructure, and underinvestment in human capital and R&D.
2. Absence of Inclusive Growth: Growth has not translated into broad-based poverty reduction due to rising inequality, limited job creation in productive sectors, and constraints in labor mobility and skills mismatch.

Key Policy Recommendations for Higher and More Inclusive Growth

1. Strengthen Macroeconomic Stability: Maintain disciplined fiscal and monetary policies to build buffers, stabilize inflation, and support external stability.
2. Prioritize Domestic Revenue Mobilization: Reform tax systems, reduce exemptions, and improve tax administration efficiency to reduce reliance on external financing.
3. Accelerate Capital Accumulation and Productivity: Increase investment in productive infrastructure (energy, transport, digital connectivity), R&D, and reforms to boost private sector-led growth.
4. Improve Human Capital Development: Enhance education quality, vocational training, and health outcomes to align with labor market needs and support structural transformation.
5. Driving Inclusive Growth: Strengthen governance, promote private sector development through an improved business environment, encourage regional trade integration, and support labor market reforms to enhance employment inclusion.

Conclusion
The Gambia has the opportunity to transform its growth model through targeted medium-to-long-term reforms. Strengthening fiscal space, increasing domestic revenue, enhancing infrastructure, and fostering private sector dynamism will build resilience and inclusivity. However, ensuring sustained political commitment, administrative capacity, and international engagement is crucial for translating reforms into tangible, sustainable growth outcomes for all Gambians.