20180611-大华银行-Markets_Overview_6页_225kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (11 June 2018)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an in-depth analysis of global economic and financial market trends, key events, and data releases for the week of 11 June 2018, with a focus on FX, equities, US Treasuries, commodities, and economic indicators. It also includes market holidays and geopolitical developments that may influence market sentiment.

Key Events and Data Releases

Geopolitical Developments

The G7 Leaders' Summit ended in disarray as Trump rejected the joint communique and criticized Canada's PM, Justin Trudeau.
The G7 released a communique without US endorsement, emphasizing free and fair trade and the fight against protectionism.
US President Trump expressed a desire to bring Russia back into the G8 bloc.
China and Russia announced increased cooperation in energy and agriculture.
US-China trade tensions remain a key risk, with the US threatening to impose 25% tariffs on $50bn of Chinese goods after 15 June.

Major Central Bank Meetings

Fed (13 Jun): Expected to raise interest rates by 25bps, bringing the Fed funds target range to 1.75-2.00%. Possible discussion on a smaller 20bps increase in interest on excess reserves.
ECB (14 Jun): Focus on whether Draghi will discuss tapering of bond purchases.
BOJ (15 Jun): No change expected in monetary policy.

Key Data Releases

China:
- May CPI: 1.8% y/y (expected, same as April)
- May PPI: 4.1% y/y (up from 3.4% in April)
- May retail sales: 9.6% y/y (expected)
- May industrial production: 6.8% y/y (expected)
- May new home prices: Expected to be released on 14 Jun
US:
- May CPI: Expected to be released on 14 Jun
- May PPI: Expected to be released on 14 Jun
- May advance retail sales: Expected on 14 Jun
- May import & export prices: Expected on 14 Jun
- May industrial production: Expected on 15 Jun
- Preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence survey: Expected on 15 Jun
UK:
- April industrial production and unemployment rate: Expected on 11 Jun and 12 Jun
- May CPI & RPI: Expected on 13 Jun
- May retail sales: Expected on 14 Jun
Germany:
- April industrial production: Unexpected contraction of -1% m/m (+2.0% y/y)
- April trade surplus: EUR20.4bn (down from EUR24.7bn in March)
Asia:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Brunei will have market holidays.
- Malaysia's April industrial production is expected to rise 4.3% y/y (prev: 3.1%).
- Singapore's April retail sales are expected to rise 1.8% y/y (prev: -1.5%).

FX Market Highlights

FX Rates (as of 8 Jun 2018)

USD strengthened against most currencies, with the DXY index rising 0.11% to 93.535.
EUR/USD fell to an intraday low of 1.1727 before closing at 1.1769.
GBP/USD fell to 1.3405.
AUD/USD fell to 0.7601.
NZD/USD rose to 0.7034.
JPY fell to an intraday low of 109.20 against the USD.
SGD is expected to trade between 1.3407 and 1.3341 based on the SGD NEER forecast.
PBoC is expected to set the midpoint 75 pips weaker at 6.4078/USD.

Equities Market Highlights

US Equities

US stock markets ended the week higher, with all three major indices advancing more than 1%.
The Dow Jones rose 0.3% to 25,316.53.
The S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 2,779.03.
The Nasdaq rose 0.14% to 7,354.34.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged up to 12.18.

Asian Equities

Asian markets were largely down on Friday, with losses in the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, Nikkei 225, and TAIEX.
Singapore's Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 opened slightly higher on Monday, with the Nikkei up 0.1% in Singapore.
Taiwan showed a stronger performance, with exports rising 14.2% y/y and imports 12.0% y/y.
Philippines experienced a widening trade deficit, with exports down 8.5% y/y and imports up 22.2% y/y.

US Treasuries

US Treasury yields rose on Friday as expectations of a Fed rate hike increased.
10-Year UST yield closed at 2.95% (+2.6bps).
30-Year UST yield closed at 3.09% (+2.2bps).
2-Year UST yield closed at 2.50% (+1bps).
5-Year UST yield closed at 2.78% (+2bps).
US will auction 3-month and 6-month T-bills on 11 Jun and 4-week T-bills on 12 Jun.

Commodities

Crude Oil prices closed slightly lower on Friday, with Nymex WTI at $65.74 (-0.32%) and London Brent at $76.46 (-0.86%).
Gold prices rose slightly to $1,298.17 (+$0.99).
Baker Hughes report indicated a slight increase in US oil rigs to 862.

Market Holidays

Australia: Queen's Birthday Holiday on 11 June.
Philippines: Independence Day on 12 June.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Brunei: Hari Raya Aidilfitri holiday from 13 to 19 June.
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: Dragon Boat Day on 18 June.
Other Holidays:
- US: Independence Day on 4 July.
- Japan: Marine Day on 16 July.
- Thailand: Asarnha Bucha Day on 27 July, King's Birthday on 30 July.
- South Korea: Liberation Day on 15 August.
- Australia: Bank Holiday on 6 August.
- Singapore: National Day on 9 August.

Summary of Key Viewpoints

Geopolitical Tensions: The G7 summit and US-China trade issues are likely to influence global market sentiment and policy decisions.
Interest Rates: The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bps, with possible adjustments to interest on excess reserves.
Economic Indicators: China's data shows resilience in external demand, while Germany's industrial production dipped.
FX Volatility: The USD strengthened, while Asian currencies weakened, particularly the JPY and KRW.
Equity Market Sentiment: Asian equities were down on Friday but showed signs of recovery on Monday, with mixed performances across regions.
Commodities: Crude oil prices declined, but gold rose slightly, reflecting market uncertainty and anticipation of Fed decisions.

Key Risks and Outlook

Trade Tensions: US-China trade conflict remains a key risk.
Central Bank Policy: Fed, ECB, and BOJ decisions could impact global markets.
Market Volatility: Expectations of rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty may lead to increased volatility.
Economic Data: Continued monitoring of CPI, PPI, and trade figures will be crucial for market direction.

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