世界发展银行-Variable-Renewable-Energy-Locational-Study_79页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Pakistan Sustainable Energy Series: Variable Renewable Energy Locational Study

Core Content

This report, part of the Pakistan Sustainable Energy Series, presents a comprehensive locational study for the development of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), specifically solar and wind power, in Pakistan. The study was conducted over 18 months by Power Planners International (PVT) Ltd. and 8.2 Renewable Energy Experts Hamburg GmbH, under the World Bank's Pakistan Sustainable Energy Program (P169313). It provides a detailed analysis of the feasibility, financial attractiveness, and grid integration potential of VRE projects across the country.

Main Objectives

Identify the most viable locations and zones for solar and wind power development in Pakistan to meet government targets.
Determine suitable locations for near-term and long-term development based on existing and planned substation capacity.
Propose strategic investments in the electricity transmission system to facilitate the expansion of VRE.

Key Findings

Renewable Energy Zoning Study

Pakistan has ample physical resource potential to meet its VRE targets of 20% by 2025 and 30% by 2030.
Western Balochistan has the highest wind resource potential, with excellent solar resources as well.
Sindh and southern Punjab also have large solar potential, while southern Sindh (around Jhimpir and Gharo) has well-known wind corridors.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPR) has less solar and wind potential than other provinces, but some areas are still viable for wind and medium-sized solar projects.
Punjab has well-developed grid infrastructure and good solar resources, but land availability for new solar plants is a challenge due to competition with agriculture.

Grid Integration Analysis

The 20% VRE target can be achieved by utilizing existing substation and transmission line capacities, thus minimizing grid investment.
Interconnection-ready sites have been identified in each province to support future VRE expansion.
Transmission losses are reduced when VRE is developed near load centers, improving system efficiency.
To meet the 30% VRE target, new high-voltage transmission lines will be necessary, especially to access Balochistan’s vast resources.
A proposed HVDC Chaghi-Muñaffargarh link is highlighted as a key infrastructure project to enable Balochistan to become a net energy exporter.

Shortlisting and Ranking of Opportunities

The study has identified 41 potential project sites (PPSs), including 38 solar and 3 hybrid sites, to achieve the 30% VRE target by 2030.
A scenario-based analysis has been conducted to rank these sites, considering financial attractiveness, volatility, and capacity utilization.
Scenario 1 (conventional sizing) and Scenario 3 (optimal sizing) show different levels of investment and output.
Scenario 3 is recommended for its cost efficiency and optimal utilization of transmission infrastructure.

Key Recommendations

Each province should develop its own RE expansion plan, based on but not limited to the findings of this study.
Co-location of solar and wind power plants is recommended to optimize grid utilization and reduce costs.
Pre-feasibility studies should be conducted for each site before competitive bidding, including Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs).
Water conservation measures should be integrated into site selection and development to avoid water stress.
Smart remuneration schemes for Independent Power Producers (IPPs) should be designed to stimulate effective grid capacity utilization.

Financial and Technical Highlights

Financial attractiveness of VRE projects is assessed using a scale of 1 to 10, based on expected PPA rates and energy costs.
Transmission line loading and substation capacity are analyzed to identify near-term and long-term opportunities.
Net Present Value (NPV) is used to evaluate the economic benefits of VRE development, with lower fossil fuel costs as a benchmark.
Volatility is defined as the variation in hourly generation output, with lower volatility being more desirable for grid stability.

Environmental and Social Considerations

The study emphasizes the avoidance of protected and used land to minimize land use conflicts.
No settlements were found on proposed sites in Sindh.
Water usage during construction and operation is a concern, especially in water-stressed areas.
Stakeholder consultations and ESIAs are recommended to ensure social acceptability and environmental sustainability.

Conclusion

This study provides a strategic roadmap for the development of solar and wind power in Pakistan to meet national energy targets. It highlights the importance of grid infrastructure, site selection, and financial planning in ensuring the economic viability and environmental sustainability of VRE projects. The recommendations are aimed at guiding government agencies, provincial authorities, and private sector developers in making informed decisions about VRE expansion.