20040930-IEA-Energy_to_2050_Scenarios_for_a_Sustainable_Future_223页_2mb

The IEA report "Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future" explores long-term energy futures through exploratory and normative scenarios to address sustainability, energy security, and climate change. The IEA, an autonomous body within the OECD, promotes sustainable energy policies and facilitates international co-operation.

Exploratory scenarios—Clean but not Sparkling, Dynamic but Careless, and Bright Skies—examine varied futures driven by factors like technological change and environmental attitudes. Normative scenarios, like the SD Vision scenario, outline desirable outcomes through backcasting, setting targets such as a 60% share of non-carbon energy by 2050.

Key findings include:

• Population and Income Growth: World population reaches ~8.9 billion by 2050, with economic growth slowing in developed countries but accelerating in developing ones.
• Energy Demand: Total primary energy demand increases but with improved efficiency; transportation remains a major energy consumer.
• Energy Mix: Renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen play key roles in sustainable futures; fossil fuels decline but face supply and environmental challenges.
• Policy Implications: Aggressive policies on efficiency, renewables deployment, carbon pricing, and international co-operation are vital.

The report stresses that proactive measures, technological innovation, and shifts in societal values are crucial for achieving sustainable energy systems.