2012年-世界发展银行全球_When_Job_Earnings_Are_Behind_Poverty_Reduction_6页_2mb

Summary of the Document: "When Job Earnings Are behind Poverty Reduction"

Core Content

This document analyzes the factors contributing to poverty reduction in 16 developing countries over the last decade, focusing on the role of labor market conditions, demographic changes, and income sources. It presents a detailed decomposition of the changes in poverty, emphasizing the importance of labor income and the relative contributions of different factors.

Main Views and Key Findings

• Labor Income as a Primary Factor:
  The most significant contributor to poverty reduction in the majority of the 16 countries was the growth in labor income. In 10 countries, labor income accounted for more than half of the change in moderate poverty, and in another 4 countries, it accounted for over 40 percent.

• Demographic Changes:
  Declining dependency rates contributed to poverty reduction in 10 out of 16 countries. This is due to fewer dependents relative to working-age individuals, leading to higher per capita income and consumption.

• Nonlabor Income:
  Transfers and other nonlabor income sources, such as remittances and public transfers, played a smaller role compared to labor income in most countries. However, in Romania and Moldova, transfers were more significant.

• Sectoral and Occupational Shifts:
  There was a notable shift in employment from agriculture to manufacturing and service sectors, which increased productivity and labor income. In Bangladesh, Peru, and Thailand, workers moved from low-productivity jobs to higher-paying ones, particularly salaried employment.

• Human Capital Improvements:
  Educational attainment improved significantly in these countries, leading to higher returns to education and experience, which in turn increased the marginal value of work and real earnings.

• Extreme Poverty Reduction:
  For extreme poverty, measured by a $2.50 per day line, nonlabor income played a more important role in some countries. However, in Thailand and Peru, labor income still remained the main contributor, especially from nonfarm sources.

Key Contributions to Poverty Reduction by Country

Methodology and Limitations

• The study uses two decomposition methods: one based on Barros et al. (2006) and another adapted from Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Lustig (2005). These methods allow for the analysis of the contribution of labor market conditions, demographic changes, and nonlabor income to poverty reduction.
• The analysis does not account for improvements in the quality of public services or access to services not captured in household income, which could also have contributed to poverty reduction.
• Panel data is often not available with the required frequency or representativeness, so repeated cross-sections and pseudo panels are used as alternatives.

Conclusion

The last decade has seen a significant decline in poverty across the developing world, with labor market improvements playing the central role. While demographic changes and nonlabor income also contributed, the most substantial impact came from increases in real earnings among the poor. This highlights the importance of labor market policies in reducing poverty, especially in countries where productivity and returns to labor have increased.

Notes

• The analysis focuses on moderate poverty, defined by the national poverty line closest to the national moderate poverty rate.
• The document also notes that the contribution of transfers varies by country and is often conditioned by income and employment status.
• The study is part of a broader effort to understand the mechanisms behind poverty reduction for better policy design.

Authors

• Gabriela Inchauste: Senior Economist in the Poverty Reduction and Equity Group for the PREM Network.
• João Pedro Azevedo: Senior Economist in Poverty, Gender, and Equity for the Latin America and Caribbean Region.
• Sergio Olivieri: Economist in the Poverty Reduction and Equity Group in the PREM Network.
• Jaime Saavedra: Sector Director of the Poverty Reduction and Equity Group in the PREM Network.
• Hernan Winkler: Consultant in the Poverty, Gender and Equity Group for the Latin America and Caribbean Region.

References

• Azevedo, J., G. Inchauste, S. Olivieri, J. Saavedra, and H. Winkler. Forthcoming. "Is Labor Income Responsible for Poverty Reduction? A Decomposition Approach." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.
• Barros, Ricardo Paes de, Mirela de Carvalho, Samuel Franco, and Rosane Mendoza. 2006. "Uma Analise das Principais Causas da Queda Recente na Desigualdade de Renda Brasileira." Revista Econômica.
• Bourguignon, François, Francisco Ferreira, and Nora Lustig, eds. 2005. "The Microeconomics of Income Distribution Dynamics in East Asia and Latin America."
• Chen, S., and Martin Ravallion. 2008. "The Developing World is Poorer Than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty."
• Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion. 1992. "Growth and Redistribution Components of Changes in Poverty Measures."
• Essama-Nsah, B. 2012. "Identification of Sources of Variation in Poverty Outcomes."
• Ferreira, Francisco. 2010. "Distributions in Motion: Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty Dynamics."
• Inchauste, G., S. Olivieri, J. Saavedra, and H. Winkler. 2012. "What Is behind the Decline in Poverty Since 2000?"
• Lanjouw, Luoto, and David McKenzie. 2011. "Using Repeated Cross-Sections to Explore Movements into and out of Poverty."
• Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. "China's (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty."
• World Bank. 2012. "An Update to the World Bank's Estimates of Consumption Poverty in the Developing World."