2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sudan_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_1mb

Sudan: 2017 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV consultation with Sudan by the IMF highlights the country's economic challenges and outlines policy recommendations aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. The consultation took place in September 2017, with the Executive Board concluding its review on November 29, 2017.

Main Issues and Key Findings

Economic Conditions

• Sudan has faced significant economic difficulties since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, which led to a loss of oil exports and production.
• The country's external environment has been challenging, marked by arrears, limited access to external financing, U.S. sanctions, and the withdrawal of correspondent bank relations.
• The revocation of U.S. sanctions in October 2017 presents a new opportunity for economic reforms and improved access to international financing.

Macroeconomic Performance

• Real GDP growth was estimated at 3.5% in 2016, but growth slowed to 3.25% in 2017 due to weaker domestic demand.
• Inflation rose sharply to 35.1% in September 2017, up from 18.3% in the same period in 2016.
• Current account deficit decreased from 6.1% of GDP in 2016 to 2.75% in 2017, driven by depreciation of the parallel exchange rate, import restrictions, and improved terms of trade.
• Monetary aggregates expanded rapidly in 2016–17, with reserve money growth increasing from 27.5% to 60% year-on-year, fueled by fiscal deficit monetization.

Public and External Debt

• Sudan remains in debt distress and is eligible for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative.
• External debt reached $54.1 billion in 2017, with most debt in arrears.
• Arrears to the IMF stood at SDR 966.3 million at the end of September 2017.
• The true fiscal deficit is much larger than the on-budget deficit due to quasi-fiscal activities from the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) financing of imports at the overvalued official rate.

Policy Recommendations

Exchange Rate Reforms

• A unified and market-determined exchange rate is essential to reduce external imbalances, boost competitiveness, and enhance fiscal revenues.
• The IMF supports exchange rate unification, with some directors suggesting a gradual approach to mitigate risks of overshooting and adverse social impacts.
• The parallel exchange rate has been significantly depreciated, and the introduction of a commercial bank incentive rate close to the parallel rate has helped reduce the current account deficit.

Fiscal Consolidation

• Fiscal policy should be tightened to reduce deficit monetization and inflationary pressures.
• Subsidies on fuel and wheat should be phased out and replaced with targeted cash transfers.
• Broadening the tax base and streamlining tax exemptions are recommended to improve revenue mobilization.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to widen from 1.6% to 1.8% of GDP in 2017, and the true fiscal deficit is estimated at 6.5% of GDP.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• Monetary policy tightening is necessary to control inflation.
• The central bank should limit monetization of fiscal deficits and focus on financial stability.
• AML/CFT supervision needs to be strengthened to ensure transparency and reduce risks.
• Reserve money targeting is suggested as a framework to anchor monetary policy under a flexible exchange rate regime.

Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms are needed to support long-term growth and macroeconomic stability.
• The business climate and legal framework should be modernized.
• Anti-corruption measures are encouraged to improve investment and growth prospects.

Debt Sustainability and External Stability

• Sudan is eligible for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, but debt remains high and unsustainable.
• The debt sustainability analysis (DSA), prepared jointly by the IMF and the World Bank, highlights the risks of continued fiscal and monetary imbalances.
• Gross international reserves remained low at $1.1 billion in 2017, equivalent to 1.4 months of imports.
• Debt relief requires comprehensive support from external creditors and regular payments to the IMF to clear arrears.

Outlook and Risks

• Under the baseline scenario, growth is projected at 3.75% in the near term, driven by the mining and agriculture sectors.
• However, inflationary pressures and external imbalances are likely to intensify due to an overvalued exchange rate, weak business environment, and loose fiscal policies.
• Risks are broadly balanced, but there are large margins of uncertainty.
• Upside risks include the implementation of ambitious reforms that could boost growth and macro stability.
• Downside risks arise from incompatible fiscal and monetary policies and declining external financing.

Additional Information

• The National Consensus Government was established in May 2017, with participation from opposition parties.
• A new constitution is being drafted, and the government is seeking to remove Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism List (SSTL) to enable debt relief and foreign aid.
• Sudan has had 14 Staff-Monitored Programs (SMPs) and is interested in a new one to implement sound macroeconomic policies and meet debt-relief conditionality.

Key Documents

• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's views and recommendations.
• Staff Report: Outlines the economic developments, policy discussions, and recommendations.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA): Prepared by the IMF and World Bank.
• Executive Director Statement: Reflects the views of the IMF's representative for Sudan.
• Informational Annex: Provides additional context and details.

Summary of Economic Indicators (2013–2018)

Conclusion

The IMF highlights that while Sudan has made progress in some areas, such as exchange rate flexibility and partial fiscal adjustments, more decisive reforms are needed to achieve sustained macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. The revocation of U.S. sanctions is a positive development, but the continued fiscal and monetary imbalances pose significant risks. The debt sustainability remains a major concern, and debt relief is critical for long-term economic recovery. The Executive Board encourages the authorities to strengthen their cooperation with the IMF and to implement comprehensive reforms.