2022-10-17-IMF-IMF-汇款倾向_推动中美洲和加勒比汇款的宏观和微观因素（英）_35页_646kb

Summary of "The Propensity to Remit: Macro and Micro Factors Driving Remittances to Central America and the Caribbean"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper examines the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influencing remittance flows to Central America and the Caribbean (CAC), focusing on the unexpected increase in remittances during the 2020-2021 period despite the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

Main Viewpoints

• Unexpected Remittance Trends: Remittance inflows to CAC exceeded expectations during 2020 and 2021, even as the global economy contracted due to the pandemic.
• Macroeconomic Impact: Remittances are sensitive to both the economic conditions in the sending and receiving countries, with labor market conditions being a key determinant.
• Income and Education Effects: Higher income and education levels among immigrants are associated with higher remittance flows, suggesting a resource-sharing model where more affluent families remit more.
• Labor Market Sensitivity: Immigrant workers, especially those from CAC, are more vulnerable to labor market fluctuations and experienced higher unemployment rates during the pandemic compared to U.S.-born workers.
• Sectoral Vulnerability: Immigrants are overrepresented in sectors like hospitality and construction, which were severely affected by the pandemic, leading to greater job loss and income reduction.
• Policy Implications: Understanding remittance dynamics is crucial for policymakers to anticipate financial flows, manage liquidity, and assess the stability of the financial sector.

Key Information

Remittance Trends

• Remittances to CAC have grown significantly over the past two decades, now constituting a major share of GDP in several countries.
• In 2020, remittances to CAC exceeded $550 billion, surpassing total foreign direct investment and other external current account inflows.
• In countries like El Salvador and Honduras, remittances account for over 20% of GDP.

Macro Factors

• Remittance flows are responsive to GDP growth in both sending and receiving countries.
• The global financial crisis (GFC) and the pandemic had heterogeneous impacts on remittance flows.
• Labor market conditions in the U.S. (the main source of remittances to CAC) played a significant role in explaining the increase in remittances during 2020-2021.

Micro Factors

• Income and Education: Higher income and education levels are associated with higher remittance propensity and amounts.
• Marital Status: Married individuals with a spouse absent tend to remit more.
• Occupation and Industry: Immigrants are more likely to be employed in construction, transportation, and hospitality sectors, which are more cyclical and affected by the pandemic.
• Unauthorized Immigrants: A significant portion of unauthorized immigrants from CAC are more exposed to economic fluctuations.

Data and Methodology

• The study uses micro data from the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS) and the 2008 American Community Survey (ACS) to analyze demographic, educational, and labor market characteristics of CAC immigrants.
• The paper also incorporates macroeconomic data on GDP growth, unemployment rates, and other economic indicators to estimate the determinants of remittances.
• It applies a discrete choice model to assess the likelihood of remitting based on individual features and uses microsimulations to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on employment and remittance behavior.

Findings

• Remittance flows are more sensitive to labor market conditions than previously thought.
• The pandemic had a more pronounced negative impact on immigrant unemployment compared to U.S.-born workers.
• The U.S. policy response during the pandemic, such as income support, may have contributed to the unexpected increase in remittances.
• The resource-sharing model is evident, with more educated and higher-income immigrants more likely to remit.

Structure of the Paper

1. Introduction: Highlights the unexpected rise in remittances to CAC during the pandemic and outlines the study's objectives.
2. Some Literature: Reviews the existing literature on remittances, focusing on their developmental impact, cyclical implications, and macroeconomic determinants.
3. Data: Describes the data sources and methodology used in the analysis.
4. Demographic Characteristics of Immigrants and Remittances: Presents stylized facts on the demographics of CAC immigrants and their remittance behavior.
5. Education Characteristics of Immigrants from CAC: Analyzes the relationship between education levels and remittance propensity.
6. Labor Market Features of Immigrants from CAC: Examines how labor market conditions affect remittance flows.
7. Additional Features of Remitters: Explores other factors influencing remittance behavior, such as marital status and occupation.
8. Source Country Factors Affecting Remittance Flows: Investigates the role of economic conditions in sending countries and their impact on remittances.
9. Results: Summarizes the findings from the analysis, including the effects of the GFC and the pandemic on remittances.
10. Conclusions and Policy Considerations: Discusses the implications of the findings for policy and future research directions.

Policy Considerations

• Policymakers should consider both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors when forecasting remittance flows.
• The role of U.S. labor market conditions and policies, especially during crises, is critical for understanding remittance behavior.
• Further research is needed to explore the heterogeneity in remittance behavior across different income levels and to assess the long-term effects of the pandemic on remittance patterns.