20251205-国泰期货-Morning_Insight_December_5,_2025_8页_754kb

Commodity Market Insights

• Ferrous Metals: Fundamentals remain flat, awaiting macroeconomic drivers. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and reduced steel inventories limit a trending rise.
• Iron Ore: Port inventories are accumulating, weakening demand. However, winter restocking may support short-term prices.
• Coking Coal: Near-month contracts face limited rebounds due to "tech warehouse receipts," but far-month contracts may rebound technically.

Financial Market Focus:

• CNY Repo Operation: PBOC announced a 1 trillion CNY reverse repo to maintain liquidity, signaling potential policy support.
• Bond Futures: Analysis focuses on technical support levels and open interest trends across key bond contracts.

Event & Data Highlights:

• Rare Earth Exports: Continued approval for civilian use enhances global supply chain stability.
• Trade Data: Yiwu's export growth (especially to ASEAN) highlights resilience, aided by preferential tariffs.
• Economic Calendar: Key data releases (CPI, PMI, Industrial Production) scheduled for early December 2025.

Market Outlook: Short-term trends driven by seasonal demand and macroeconomics; technical opportunities in longer-dated contracts persist.