2018年Q1高力酒店洞察（英文版）-2mb

Colliers Hotel Insight Summary - Q1 2018

Core Content Overview

Colliers Hotel Insight is a quarterly publication that provides insights into key trends, investment opportunities, and challenges within the hospitality and gaming sectors across Asia. This edition focuses on the performance of high-end hotels and restaurants, the demand for hotel accommodations in China, and Singapore as the destination of the quarter. It also includes an update on the Asian gaming market, highlighting its recovery and evolving dynamics.

Main Points and Key Insights

High-end Restaurants and Hotels: Do They Fit?

• Trend: High-end restaurants, especially those with celebrity chefs or Michelin stars, are increasingly seen as a core offering for luxury hotels.
• Benefits:
  • Quality: Michelin-starred restaurants use premium ingredients, enhancing the guest experience.
  • Brand Value: These restaurants can elevate the hotel’s brand and attract repeat customers.
  • Marketing: Hotels benefit from the restaurant’s global recognition, reducing marketing costs.
• Challenges:
  • Profitability: High operational costs (e.g., food, rent, payroll) can lead to thin profit margins.
  • Adaptation: Hotel restaurants must align with local market expectations and adapt to changing consumer needs.
• Recommendation: Hoteliers should consider integrating high-end dining as a strategic move but must manage costs and ensure profitability.

China - Rising Demand for Hotels

• Performance:
  • RevPAR Growth: RevPAR in China grew by 5.6% in 2017 due to reduced supply and increased demand.
  • Occupancy Trends: Occupancy increased with a CAGR of 2% from 2015 to 2017, outpacing supply growth.
• Drivers:
  • Economic Growth: China’s GDP growth, especially the shift towards consumption, is fueling tourism.
  • Infrastructure: Ongoing infrastructure projects (e.g., high-speed rail, urban transit) are improving domestic accessibility.
  • Domestic Tourism: Domestic trips have surged, with 4.44 billion trips in 2016 and expected to rise to 4.88 billion by 2017.
• Outbound Tourism: Expected to grow by 47.7% from 120.1 million in 2015 to 177.4 million in 2020.
• Market Outlook:
  • Supply Growth: Supply in Tier 2 cities is expected to offer more competitive pricing.
  • Investment: Chinese investors are increasingly focusing on local opportunities, with a strong presence in gateway cities like Hong Kong and Singapore.

Destination of the Quarter - Singapore

• Tourism Growth:
  • Visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 4% in 2018 and 3% in 2019.
  • Tourism Receipts: Increased by 8% in 2017, driven by higher spending in sightseeing, entertainment, and shopping.
• Occupancy and ADR:
  • Room occupancy remains high, over 84%, despite new supply.
  • ADR has declined slightly, with RevPAR also showing a marginal decrease.
• Market Dynamics:
  • Supply Constraints: Mid-market and lower-end hotel supply is limited, leading to high occupancy and frustrated demand.
  • Room Supply: New room supply is expected to slow in 2018 and 2019, allowing existing rooms to be absorbed.
  • Tourist Behavior: Average length of stay has remained constant, but there is a growing trend of day trips.

Hotel Investment and Valuation

• Capital Markets:
  • China remains a key source market for hotel investment, despite regulatory controls on outbound capital.
  • Transaction Volume: Increased by over 10% in 2017, driven by Dalian Wanda's asset transfers.
• Market Conditions:
  • Cap Rates: Gateway cities like Singapore, Tokyo, and Hong Kong continue to trade at compressed cap rates and record prices.
  • Yield Outlook: Yields are expected to remain low until interest rates rise significantly.
• Development Trends:
  • Investors are taking on more development risk, with developers required to provide real equity and put options for exit.

Gaming Market Update

• Recovery:
  • 2017 saw a 19% increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR), the first growth since 2013.
  • VIP Segment: Continued decline in VIP revenues, especially in Macau.
• Mass Market Growth:
  • Mass market play is gaining traction, with established casinos shifting focus to this segment.
• Regulatory Impact:
  • Mainland China's restrictions on conspicuous spending and money laundering led to a 34.3% drop in GGR in Macau in 2015.
  • Governments are realizing the need to regulate and tax gaming more effectively to capture market potential.
• Regional Shifts:
  • Cambodia: Benefited from Macau's downturn, with NagaCorp reporting a 22% profit increase in 2015.
  • Investor Caution: Returns are no longer as high as before, and investors are becoming more selective.

Colliers Hotels Overview

• Established in 1985, Colliers International offers a range of services in the hospitality sector, including:
  • Capital valuations, rental advisory, asset management, and transaction advisory.
  • Services for both institutional and private clients across Asia.
• Expertise:
  • Specialized in hotels, resorts, golf courses, spas, and mixed-use developments.
  • Multi-lingual and multi-cultural team with deep industry knowledge.
• Client Base:
  • Includes corporate clients, private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and governments.

Key Services Offered

• Market Analysis: Feasibility studies, demand analysis, and economic impact assessments.
• Valuation Services: Property and business valuations, impairment testing, and plant and machinery valuation.
• Transaction Advisory: IPOs, REITS listings, and asset disposals.
• Management and Operations: Management agreements, lease reviews, and internal business reviews.
• Development Support: Extensions, refurbishments, brand roll-outs, and concept designs.

Conclusion

The hospitality sector in Asia, particularly in China and Singapore, is experiencing mixed but generally positive trends. While high-end restaurants can enhance a hotel's brand and guest experience, they must be managed carefully to maintain profitability. China's domestic and inbound tourism is driving demand, with opportunities emerging in Tier 2 cities. Singapore, despite its high occupancy, faces challenges with ADR and supply constraints, which could encourage further development. The gaming market is recovering, with a focus on mass market play and regulatory adjustments. Colliers Hotels remains a key player in this evolving landscape, offering tailored advice and services to meet the needs of diverse stakeholders.