2024-12-16-WTO-2024年全球贸易发展年度概览报告_85页_1mb

Summary of WTO Trade Policy Review Report (WT/TPR/OV/27)

Covering Period: mid-October 2023 to mid-October 2024

Executive Summary

1. Global trade faces uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions and climate-related crises, with increased unilateral trade policy decisions.
2. Trade restrictions: Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, WTO Members introduced 169 import-restrictive and 291 trade-facilitating measures.
   • Import restrictions covered USD 887.6 billion, up from USD 337.1 billion (last report).
   • Export restrictions covered USD 276.7 billion, representing 1.1% of global exports.
3. COVID-19 measures: By mid-2024, 86.8% of pandemic-related import restrictions were repealed.
4. Trade fragmentation: Trade increasingly occurs between like-minded economies, driven by geopolitical concerns.
5. Policy opportunities: WTO Members can address contemporary issues like industrial policy and climate change through collective updates to the rulebook.

1. Introduction

• The report provides an annual overview of international trade developments, with a focus on transparency and economic indicators.
• Key partners: International organizations like OECD, ITC, and GTA contributed specialized analyses.

2. Recent Economic and Trade Developments

Key Findings:

• Global merchandise trade grew 2.7% in 2024 (projected), led by Asia (+7.4% exports).
• Europe had the worst trade performance (exports and imports contracted).
• Commercial services trade surged 7% in 2024, driven by financial and business services.

3. Trade and Trade-Related Policy Developments

1. Goods Policy Trends

• Trade measures: 461 COVID-19-related trade measures were lifted, with 205 still active.
• Anti-dumping actions: Increased by 138% (Sept 2021–Aug 2024), with China being the most targeted.
• Sanitary/Phytosanitary (SPS) measures: 2,045 notifications submitted in 2023–2024, many related to food safety.

2. Agriculture

• Food restrictions: 70 export restrictions on food/feed/fertilizers remain in place.
• Domestic support: China and India account for 36% and 6% of anti-dumping investigations, respectively.

3. Industrial Policy:

• Governments increasingly use subsidies and industrial policies to address crises like pandemics and climate change.

4. Services Trade Developments

• 134 new trade-in-services measures recorded, with mode 3 (commercial presence) most affected (nearly 50%).
• Financial services saw 21% of restrictive measures, while communications and IT-enabled services accounted for 9%.

5. Intellectual Property Rights

• TRIPS Agreement: Work continues on extending COVID-19-related flexibilities to diagnostics and therapeutics.
• National Strategies: Slovenia updated its intellectual property strategy to align with global innovation trends.

6. Transparency of Trade Policies

• Notification Compliance: Only 55% of Members fully comply with annual reporting obligations under the TRIPS Agreement.
• SPS/TBT Committees: 13 emergency SPS notifications in 2024 addressed food safety concerns.

Key Challenges & Opportunities

Challenges:

• Geopolitical fragmentation reducing trade efficiency.
• Slow progress in dispute resolution due to a vacant Appellate Body.

Opportunities:

• Collective updates to WTO rules for issues like climate change and digital transformation.
• Increased transparency through e-TRIPS and other digital platforms.

Respect for WTO rules and multilateral cooperation are critical to addressing global trade uncertainties.