2008年-世界发展银行全球_Revisions_to_remittance_trends_2007_4页_258kb

Summary of Migration and Development Brief 5

Core Content

This document provides an updated analysis of global remittance flows to developing countries in 2007, highlighting the overall growth and regional variations. It also discusses the slowdown in remittance flows to Mexico in early 2008 and its implications for the country's development.

Key Statistics

Remittance Inflows to Developing Countries

• Total Remittances in 2007: $251 billion
• Growth from 2006 to 2007: 11%
• Growth from 2002 to 2007: 118%

Regional Breakdown

Main Points

Updated Remittance Estimates

• The revised estimate for 2007 shows remittances to developing countries reaching $251 billion, up from $240 billion.
• The growth rate for 2007 is 11%, and the total increase since 2002 is over 100%.

Major Recipient Countries

• Mexico: Remittance inflows were $25 billion in 2007, slightly below earlier estimates.
• Philippines: Remittance inflows were $17.2 billion in 2007, consistent with previous estimates.
• Poland and Romania: Significant upward revisions in remittance inflows, with Poland becoming the fifth-largest recipient among developing countries.

Impact of Income Classification Changes

• Income classifications have been updated, leading to a shift in the composition of remittance flows.
• India, Mongolia, Sudan, and Timor-Leste are now classified as middle-income countries, reducing the share of remittances to low-income countries.

Trends in Mexico

• Slowdown in 2008: Migrant remittances to Mexico declined by 3.4% in May 2008 and by 2.6% during January-May 2008 compared to the same periods in 2007.
• Reasons for Slowdown:
  • High Base Effect: After doubling between 2002 and 2007, growth is slowing.
  • Immigration Restrictions: Tighter enforcement in the U.S. has shifted remittances to informal or hand-carry channels.
  • Economic Slowdown in the U.S.: Particularly in the construction sector, has affected employment and incomes of Mexican migrants.

Comparison with Other Countries

• El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala: These countries are less affected by U.S. immigration restrictions due to temporary protected status or special arrangements.
• Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh: Remittance flows continue to grow robustly, driven by high demand for migrant labor in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Key Information

• GCC Countries: Experience high economic growth due to commodity prices, leading to increased demand for migrant labor.
• Migrant Composition: These countries have a high proportion of migrants relative to their population (e.g., 78% in Qatar).
• Impact of Remittances: Remittances from GCC migrants help mitigate the effects of high food and oil prices on the poor in developing countries.
• Data Sources: The estimates are based on data from the IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook 2008 and reports from central banks, national statistical agencies, and the World Bank.

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of remittances as a significant source of income for many developing countries, particularly in Latin America and South Asia. While Mexico experienced a slowdown in remittance inflows in early 2008, other major recipient countries continue to see robust growth. The changes in income classifications have also affected the distribution of remittances, with a notable shift towards middle-income countries. The data highlights the need for continued monitoring and analysis of remittance trends to better understand their impact on development.