2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Use_of_Gold_Sales_Profits_15页_522kb

Summary of "Use of Gold Sale Profits—Initial Considerations and Options"

Executive Summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed a limited gold sale in December 2010, generating total profits of SDR 6.85 billion. This sale was initiated in October 2009 and concluded in December 2010, with an average sales price of US$1,144 per ounce, significantly higher than the initial assumption of US$850 per ounce. The main purpose of the sale was to diversify the IMF's income sources and support the Fund's concessional lending capacity for low-income countries (LICs).

The gold sale profits were divided into two parts: SDR 2.69 billion represented the book value, and SDR 6.85 billion represented the total profits. The profits were initially placed in the General Resources Account (GRA) and later transferred to the Investment Account (IA) in March 2011. The paper outlines several options for the use of the remaining windfall profits (estimated at SDR 1.75 billion) and explores the implications of each.

Core Content

• Gold Sale Overview:

  • Completed in December 2010, with total proceeds of SDR 9.54 billion.
  • The sale was limited to 403 metric tons of gold, representing one-eighth of the Fund's holdings.
  • The average sales price was US$1,144 per ounce, well above the initial assumption of US$850 per ounce.

• Purpose of the Sale:

  • To generate profits for an endowment and to support concessional lending to LICs.
  • The sale was part of the Fund's new income model, which aimed to reduce reliance on lending income.

• Windfall Profits:

  • The profits above the assumed price of US$850 per ounce and the agreed amount for PRGT subsidies are considered as windfall profits.
  • These windfall profits are estimated at SDR 1.75 billion.

• Main Options for Use of Windfall Profits:

Option 1: Boost the PRGT's Capacity to Assist LICs

• The PRGT's current capacity is projected to fall significantly after 2014.
• The remaining windfall profits could be used to increase the PRGT's self-sustained annual concessional lending capacity by over 50%.
• This would require an indirect transfer mechanism where profits are distributed to members and returned as contributions to PRGT subsidies.
• Assuming 90% return of distributed resources, the PRGT's capacity could be increased to SDR 1.1 billion, which would be sufficient to meet the lower end of projected demand for concessional loans from 2015 to 2034.

Option 2: Add to Precautionary Balances

• Precautionary balances are critical for mitigating credit risks and protecting reserve assets.
• Current precautionary balances are SDR 7.32 billion, significantly below the indicative target of SDR 15 billion.
• Adding the windfall profits to precautionary balances would increase them by 24% to SDR 9.07 billion.
• This would also bring the timetable for reaching targets forward by about one year.
• It would be beneficial given the increased Fund credit commitments and ongoing uncertainties in the global recovery.

Option 3: Add to the Endowment

• The original new income model proposed that all gold sale profits be added to the endowment.
• The windfall profits would increase the endowment size by about 40%, from SDR 4.4 billion to SDR 6.1 billion.
• This would provide a larger buffer to ensure a sustainable and diversified income base.
• The steady state income position is projected to be modestly positive with a 3% payout ratio, but adding the windfall would increase this buffer.
• No new Board decision is required for this option, as it is already aligned with the ongoing work on the IA gold endowment.

Key Information

• Gold Sale Profits: SDR 6.85 billion (SDR 2.69 billion book value + SDR 6.85 billion profit).
• Windfall Profits: SDR 1.75 billion, above the assumed price of US$850 per ounce and the agreed PRGT subsidy amount.
• PRGT Capacity: Projected to fall to SDR 0.7 billion after 2014, well below long-term demand.
• Precautionary Balances: Currently at SDR 7.32 billion, with a target of SDR 15 billion.
• Endowment Size: Would increase from SDR 4.4 billion to SDR 6.1 billion with the addition of windfall profits.
• Options Combination: The three options are not mutually exclusive, and combinations could be considered.
• Other Potential Uses:
  • Additional interest relief on PRGT credits.
  • Replenishing the Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR) Trust.
  • These would require the same indirect transfer mechanism as used for PRGT subsidies.

Conclusion and Issues for Discussion

• The Board is expected to consider the use of the remaining windfall profits in the context of the Fund's financial strategy and long-term sustainability.
• The paper outlines the three main options and other potential uses, with the aim of providing a basis for Board discussion.
• The final decision on the use of the windfall profits will depend on the Fund's financial needs, the risk environment, and the willingness of members to provide bilateral contributions.
• Staff will return with specific proposals based on the Board's views and the outcome of discussions.