2025-06-10-Jefferies-日本机床工业协会（JMTBA）和四大机床巨头5月份的订单情况_10页_331kb

JMTBA and Four Machine Tool Majors' Orders in May Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the Japanese machine tool industry's orders in May 2025, along with data from four major Japanese machine toolmakers: Tsugami (6101 JP), Okuma (6103 JP), Shibaura Machine (6104 JP), and Makino Milling (6135 JP). It highlights the performance of the industry and individual companies, the factors influencing demand, and the analysts' outlook on future market trends.

Key Figures

• Total May 2025 Orders for JMTBA Industry: ¥128.716bn (+3% YoY/-1% MoM)
• Domestic Orders: ¥33.014bn (-5% YoY/-4% MoM)
• Overseas Orders: ¥95.702bn (+7% YoY/flat MoM)
• Total May 2025 Orders for Four Companies: ¥34.808bn (+16% YoY/-3% MoM)
• Japan Orders for Four Companies: ¥8.806bn (+4% YoY/-6% MoM)
• Overseas Orders for Four Companies: ¥26bn (+20% YoY/-3% MoM)

Main Points

Industry Performance

• The Japanese machine tool industry orders in May 2025 increased by 3% year-over-year (YoY) and decreased by 1% month-over-month (MoM), surpassing the estimated ¥115bn.
• Domestic orders declined by 5% YoY and 4% MoM, while overseas orders showed a modest increase of 7% YoY and remained flat MoM.
• The JMTBA noted that the automotive industry continued to place solid orders, and some end-users in China placed orders following a trade show in April.

Company-Specific Performance

• Tsugami: Total orders were ¥8.567bn (-1% YoY/-5% MoM), with Japan orders declining by 25% YoY and increasing by 53% MoM, and overseas orders increasing by 1% YoY and decreasing by 7% MoM.
• Okuma: Total orders were ¥15,357bn (+28% YoY/-5% MoM), with Japan orders rising by 24% YoY and falling by 6% MoM, and overseas orders increasing by 30% YoY and decreasing by 5% MoM.
• Shibaura Machine: Total orders were ¥1.785bn (-5% YoY/+26% MoM), with Japan orders rising by 30% YoY and falling by 9% MoM, and overseas orders increasing by 64% YoY and 144% MoM.
• Makino Milling: Total orders were ¥9.099bn (+20% YoY/-3% MoM), with Japan orders decreasing by 10% YoY and 10% MoM, and overseas orders increasing by 32% YoY and 1% MoM.

Key Markets

• China: All four companies saw increased orders in May, particularly in metal-processing and general machinery sectors.
• United States: Okuma and Makino Milling reported continued orders in aerospace and energy sectors, though some small-scale users showed a pullback in sentiment.
• Korea and Southeast Asia: Makino Milling noted increased orders in Korea from the automotive industry and in Southeast Asia from the semiconductor sector.

Analysts' Outlook

• The analysts are cautious about market expectations for a sustained order upcycle, citing the likelihood of front-loaded orders before the implementation of tariffs and potential future price hikes due to tariffs.
• They estimate June orders to be -3% YoY/+1% MoM at ¥130bn, with Japan at -22%/-3% and overseas at +5%/+2%.
• The analysts emphasize the need for sustained growth in underlying demand from the second half of 2025 to support a positive market view.
• They are cautious about companies such as SMC (6273 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), and Fanuc (6954 JP).

Conclusion

The May 2025 data shows a mixed picture of growth and decline in the Japanese machine tool industry. While overseas orders saw an uptick, domestic orders remained weak. The four major machine toolmakers reported varying levels of performance, with some seeing strong increases in specific regions and sectors. However, the analysts are cautious about the sustainability of this growth, considering the potential impact of tariffs and the possibility of front-loaded orders. Underlying demand is seen as crucial for continued positive market trends.