2024-08-15-莱坊-European_Logistics_Dashboard_August_2024_4页_1mb

报告摘要

European Logistics Market Dashboard Summary - August 2024

Core Content Overview

The European logistics market in Q2 2024 shows a mixed picture of investment activity, performance, and rental dynamics, with a focus on industrial and logistics sectors. Key indicators suggest a gradual recovery from the market trough, though challenges remain in occupier demand and supply-side constraints.

Investment Market

Q2 2024 Investment: €8.5 billion was invested in the European industrial sector, a 12% decline compared to Q2 2023. This brought the H1 2024 total to €15.8 billion, a 9% decrease from H1 2023.
Cross-Border Capital: 66% of the investment in 2024 came from cross-border sources, with US-headquartered investors leading the way.
German Capital: Germany dropped from 3rd to 8th place in cross-border investment activity, due to a broader approach to capital deployment and limited inflows.
Institutional Investors: Institutional investors and listed real estate companies/REITs have been net sellers of European industrial property.
Notable Deals:
- Blackstone acquired a Finnish urban logistics portfolio for €135 million.
- Ares Management purchased a French logistics portfolio (Montclair Portfolio) from Blackstone for €317.5 million.
- Segro exited an Italian logistics portfolio for €327 million.
- Warehouse De Pauw (WDP) acquired a Romanian logistics portfolio for €110 million.

Performance

Total Returns: Annual capital growth for European industrial property was negative in the year to Q1 2024 at -4.9%, improving from -6.4% in Q4 2023. The market trough is now behind.
Quarterly Returns: Annual total returns were marginally negative in Q1 2024 at -0.4%, compared to -2.1% in Q4 2023 and -14.2% in Q2 2023.
Market Growth: The Netherlands, UK, CEE, and Nordic markets recorded the strongest quarterly returns, with the Netherlands leading at 1.9%.
Forecast: Positive total returns are forecast for the Eurozone industrial sector in 2024, expected to outperform office and retail sectors. Capital Economics predicts 6.2% total returns for industrial in 2024.

Yields

MSCI Pan-European Net Initial Yield (NIY): Softened by 3bps in Q1 2024 to 4.71%, with a total annual decline of 22bps.
Eurozone Bond Yields: The ECB 10-year bond yield decreased by 22bps in Q2 2024 to 3.17%, but increased by 23bps by August 9th to 2.94%. The German 10-year bund fell by 42bps to 2.19%.
Yield Spread: The spread between MSCI pan-European NIY and Eurozone 10-year government bond yields is currently around 177bps, up from 138bps at the end of Q2 2023.
Core Markets: Yields across 11 core prime markets have softened by an average of 156bps from the cyclical market peak. Warsaw, London, and Paris saw the largest declines, with London and Paris moving out by 250bps and 200bps respectively.

Occupier Market Activity

Take-Up Levels: Suppressed by weakened occupier demand and reduced development activity. High-quality space is in short supply compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Vacancy Rates: Modestly rising but remain very low, especially in core markets like the Netherlands, Germany, and France.
New Space: Newly available space consists mostly of older, lower-quality assets that may not meet modern occupier needs.
Demand Trends: Occupier demand is increasingly focused on new and grade-A properties.
Speculative Development: Declines in speculative development pipelines, particularly in the UK, France, and the Netherlands, are expected to continue.
Asian Automotive Firms: Recent transactions include Asian automotive production and distribution firms entering the CEE markets. Examples include:
- A Korean logistics specialist taking over 100,000 sqm at CTPark, Budapest.
- A Chinese automotive firm taking 17,486 sqm at CTPark Prešov South in Slovakia.

Rental Growth

Annual Growth: Average rents for European industrial properties grew by 6.8% over the past year (to Q1 2024), down from 7.4% in the year to Q4 2023 and 8.9% in the year to Q2 2023.
Quarterly Growth: 1.4% growth in Q1 2024, a slight decline from 1.7% in Q4 2023.
Strong Growth Markets:
- Netherlands: 10.4% annual rental growth.
- Ireland: 9.7%.
- Poland: 8.8%.
City Markets: Munich, Dusseldorf, and Frankfurt in Germany recorded annual rental growth of 12.0%, 11.5%, and 9.0% respectively. Manchester (UK) and Dublin (Ireland) also saw strong growth at 9.9% and 9.6% respectively.

Key Comments

EU Manufacturing PMI: Remains below 50, indicating contraction. June reading of 45.8 is the lowest since June 2023, with output, new orders, purchasing activity, and employment all declining rapidly.
Transportation Confidence Index: Strengthened significantly in the first half of 2024, with a confidence index of 8.9 in June, the highest since July 2022.
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI): Has remained in negative territory since December 2023, reflecting reduced investment in supply chain infrastructure and buffer stocks.
Freight Transport Barometer: The freight to vehicle space ratio was 77 in June 2024, down from 81 in May. Forecast for July is 73, but the barometer has trended upwards since early 2023 due to increased freight volumes.

Research & Contact

Claire Williams: Head of UK & Europe Industrial Research
Email: Claire.Williams@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 3897 0036
Richard Laird: Partner, Co Head European Capital Markets
Email: richard.laird@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 7861 1663
Charles Binks: Partner, Industrial & Logistics Agency
Email: charles.binks@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 7861 1146