卡内基国际和平基金会-Russia-Central-Asia-and-Caucasian-Threats-A-Four-Year-Assessment_9页_84kb

Summary of "Russia, Central Asia and Caucasian Threats: A Four Year Assessment"

Core Content

This testimony, prepared by Martha Brill Olcott for the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services (HASC) Threat Panel Hearing on Threat in Eurasia, provides a comprehensive overview of security threats in Russia, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus over a four-year period. The analysis is structured into five main sections, each examining different regions and the potential implications for U.S. security interests.

Main Points

Security Threats within Russia

• The Chechen conflict remains unresolved and is a major internal security challenge.
• The conflict is unlikely to be fully resolved in the near term, and any solution may not satisfy all Chechen factions.
• Terrorist activities are expected to increase, especially before the 2008 presidential elections.
• While these attacks do not directly threaten the U.S., they could destabilize the region and indirectly affect U.S. interests.
• Election-related disturbances are a plausible scenario, but the security forces are likely capable of suppressing them.
• Strained U.S.-Russia relations could arise from such disturbances, affecting the regional security environment.

Security Threats within the South Caucasus

• Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh remains frozen, with both sides continuing negotiations.
• Georgia's frozen conflicts (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) are more likely to pose a security risk to the U.S. than the Karabakh conflict.
• Abkhazia is a more volatile issue, with Georgia's strong desire to reclaim it and the presence of Russian military bases complicating relations.
• Russia's influence in Georgia is significant, and its military actions in the region could increase tensions.
• Georgia's aspirations for NATO membership could shift the regional strategic balance, potentially leading to U.S. security challenges if Russia reacts strongly.
• Uzbekistan's security situation is expected to deteriorate, especially as President Karimov approaches the end of his term in 2007.
• Instability in Uzbekistan could spill over into Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, affecting U.S. interests.
• Kazakhstan faces potential challenges during its 2005 presidential elections, but its political system is more stable.
• Turkmenistan is unpredictable due to its closed political system and the President's poor health, which may lead to an opaque succession struggle.

Narcotics-Related Security Threats

• Increased narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan has led to significant financial gains for criminal networks in Central Asia.
• Drug money has become a major source of corruption in the region, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Kyrgyzstan is particularly notable due to its U.S. military base and the role of drug money in the political upheaval that led to the ouster of President Askar Akayev.
• If opium cultivation returns to Central Asia, it could become a safe haven for terrorists, directly threatening U.S. security.
• Kazakhstan is relatively immune to the worst effects of the drug trade due to its strong legitimate economy.

Threats Posed by Islamic Terrorism

• Islamic terrorist groups such as the remnants of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and al-Qaeda are capable of destabilizing weaker Central Asian states.
• However, there is little evidence that they will target the U.S. directly or focus on Central Asia in the near term.
• Radical groups like Hiz-but Tahrir (HT) are more of a doctrinal and ideological threat, as they advocate for the creation of a caliphate and revolutionary change.
• The public role of Islam may increase in some countries, but this does not necessarily pose a direct security threat to the U.S.
• The U.S. should be cautious of underestimating the threat posed by the opium-heroin trade from Afghanistan through Eurasia, as it can fuel global terrorism.

Key Information

• The Chechen conflict is a central issue in Russia, with potential spillover effects.
• Frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus and Central Asia may remain unresolved, but their stability is not guaranteed.
• Russia's military involvement in Central Asia, especially with Uzbekistan, could lead to increased tensions with the U.S.
• The drug trade is a growing concern, with Kyrgyzstan being the most affected, and Central Asia potentially becoming a terrorist safe haven.
• Islamic terrorism is a real threat, but more of an ideological challenge than a direct security risk.
• Democracy and reform in Central Asia are threatened by the drug trade and political instability, which could lead to regime change or civil unrest.

Conclusion

The testimony concludes that while the U.S. faces potential security risks, it is important to avoid over-dramatization of these threats. The most pressing concern is the opium-heroin trade and its potential to fuel terrorism and instability across the region. The U.S. must remain vigilant and engaged in addressing these challenges to prevent them from escalating into broader security crises.