2025-06-10-花旗集团-先进能源解决方案（6781）_先进能源解决方案（6781.TW）_模型更新_12页_553kb

Citigroup Research Update: Advanced Energy Solution

Rating: Citigroup maintains a "Buy" recommendation on Advanced Energy Solution (6781.TW).

• Model Update: Raised 2025E and 2026E EPS estimates by 9% and 4% respectively, driven by stronger sales growth and higher margin assumptions from robust demand in datacenter battery backup units (BBUs) and improving prospects for e-Bike battery packs. This note also introduces 2027E forecasts.
• Target Price: Set at NT$1,330 (up from NT$1,220), based on a 32x multiple of projected 2Q25E-1Q26E EPS.
• Key Growth Drivers: Increasing BBU adoption for both general-purpose and AI servers, and stabilizing demand for e-Bike battery packs.
• Market Capitalization: NT$87,554 billion (approx. US$2.925 billion).
• ValuationMetrics: 2024-2027E earnings CAGR of approximately 33%, leading to a target multiple reflecting the mid-cycle valuation since listing.
• Key Risks: Slower post-pandemic e-Bike demand, volatility in cloud capital expenditure, component supply/logistics challenges, and negative peer competition impacts on sales and margins.

Financial Highlights:

• Past Performance: Net profit grew from NT$1,968 million (2023A) to NT$2,169 million (2024A).
• Projected Growth: EPS expected to rise significantly, from NT$23.04 (2023A) to NT$41.39 (2025E), indicating strong revenue and margin expansions.
• Valuation: Declining P/E (44.5x in 2024) and P/B reflect improving outlook.
• Dividend Yield: Projected to increase to 2.9% by 2027E, with a consistent payout ratio.

Summary: The analysis emphasizes positive momentum from datacenter and e-Bike segments, supported by stable EPS growth and a revised target price, while cautioning against risks like demand slowdowns and competitive pressures.