2017年-世界发展银行全球_The_Stabilization_and_Association_Agreement_between_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_and_the_European_Union___Impacts_of_the_Adaptation_Protocol_on_the_Agriculture_and_Food_Sector_16页_1mb

Summary of the Impacts of the Adaptation Protocol (AP) on the Agriculture and Food Sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Core Content

The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the European Union (EU) is a critical step towards EU accession. The Adaptation Protocol (AP), which entered into force on February 1st, 2017, adjusts the SAA to reflect new trade realities following Croatia's EU accession in July 2013. This adjustment involves changes in tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural and food products, which have implications for both import and local production in BiH.

Main Points

• The AP results in tariff revenue losses for BiH, estimated between BAM 51 and 68 million annually, due to the liberalization of certain agricultural and food imports from the EU-28.
• The AP affects 8% of BiH's agricultural and food imports from the EU-27 and Croatia.
• Most imports from the EU-27 and Croatia have already been liberalized, with only a small portion expected to be affected by the new TRQs.
• The TRIST model, a partial equilibrium trade model, was used to simulate the effects of the AP on imports, local production, and tariff revenue.
• The model has several limitations, including:
  • It does not account for non-tariff barriers.
  • It assumes no changes in technology.
  • It does not estimate long-term economic impacts.
  • It uses data up to 2015 for imports and 2013 for production.
  • It does not consider effects on BiH exports to the EU.

Key Findings

• The AP does not significantly affect local production of most agricultural and food products, as the TRQs are not expected to be binding.
• Chicken meat and honey are the only products where local production is expected to decline due to the liberalization of imports, as the TRQs will be binding for these items.
• The loss of tariff revenue is primarily associated with the first units of imports that enter the market before the TRQs are binding.
• Consumer welfare is likely to increase due to lower prices on EU products, potentially offsetting the revenue loss and the decline in local production.

Recommendations for the Future

To enhance the competitiveness of BiH's agri-food sector, the following measures are recommended:

1. Improve domestic producers' performance:

   • Align regulatory frameworks with EU standards, particularly in food safety.
   • Differentiate between social support and investment support.
   • Build resilience to trade and climate shocks through financial and climate-smart measures.

2. Strengthen institutions:

   • Harmonize regulatory and institutional frameworks to ensure policy coherence.
   • Clarify responsibilities and mandates among public actors to facilitate effective enforcement.

3. Leverage alternative funding:

   • Use grants and donor support to mitigate tariff revenue losses and promote sector development.
   • Ensure financial assistance is timely, selective, and aligned with seasonal and yearly cycles.
   • Develop a Rural Development Strategy to guide efficient and transparent investment at the producer level.

4. Enhance agricultural information systems:

   • Integrate existing databases such as farm and livestock registers with the Land Parcel and Identification system.
   • Support policy targeting and impact analysis through accurate and comprehensive data.

Conclusion

The AP has short-term impacts on BiH's agricultural and food sector, primarily in the form of tariff revenue loss and potential decline in local production for specific products like chicken meat and honey. However, consumer benefits and market access improvements may offset these effects. Long-term sector competitiveness depends on institutional reforms, modernization, and better access to resources and information. The World Bank emphasizes the need for policy alignment, investments in productivity, and support systems to ensure sustainable development of the agri-food sector in BiH.